國際視野：供求失衡油價難下 （17 Apr 2008）

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即使不少市場人士認為美國經濟衰退，石油需求勢必放緩，有助紓緩油價上升壓力，但國際油價仍然冉冉上升，紐約期油周二更升至每桶114.03美元，再創紀錄新高。

油價甫踏入2008年便已升破100美元大關，其後出現獲利回吐，曾回落至90美元之下，但近期再展升勢，短短一個月已升了31%。有越來越多跡象顯示美國這個全球最大油消耗國的經濟已步入衰退，而國際能源組織（IEA）亦因應美國經濟放緩，把全球今年每日耗油量預測減少46萬桶，至8720萬桶，為何油價仍不跌反升？

此消彼長需求不減

油價近日迭創新高，市場主流看法是由供應商扭曲所造成，包括墨西哥因惡劣天氣關閉原油出口港、尼日利亞暴亂迫使意大利油公司Eni停產，以及俄羅斯聲稱石油產能高峰期已過等。不過，真的如此簡單？

美國飽受次按煎熬，經濟急速滑坡，加上汽油價格暴升（周二已升至每加侖3.386美元新高），不少家庭改變用車習慣，耗油量確實減少，但全球需求根本未有減少。美國用油減少部份，被中印（度）兩個經濟迅速發展的亞洲人口大國需求增加抵銷，尤其中國除積極增加石油庫存外，更向外國油公司埋手，國家外匯管理局早前買入1.6%法國油公司Total股權，日前又斥10億英鎊入股英國石油（BP）1%股份，可見求油若渴。

石油出口國組織（OPEC）一直以油價高企存有炒作成份為拒絕增產藉口，其實是維護成員國的利益。石油有價，油組成員豬籠入水，經濟大為改善，又何須理會美國咆哮而增產遏油價？供求繼續失衡，油價根本無頂可言，筆者估計，油價短線或會因聯儲局本月底減息幅度小於預期，美元反彈而出現回吐，但要重見雙位數字，機會不大。

王冠一

IEA -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) acts as energy policy advisor to 27 member countries in their effort to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens. Founded during the oil crisis of 1973-74, the IEA’s initial role was to co-ordinate measures in times of oil supply emergencies. As energy markets have changed, so has the IEA. Its mandate has broadened to incorporate the “Three E's” of balanced energy policy making: energy security, economic development and environmental protection. Current work focuses on climate change policies, market reform, energy technology collaboration and outreach to the rest of the world, especially major consumers and producers of energy like China, India, Russia and the OPEC countries.

OPEC -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, ｃ ｒｅａｔｅd at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The five Founding Members were later joined by nine other Members: Qatar ( 1961); Indonesia ( 1962); Socialist Peoples Libyan Arab Jamahiriya ( 1962); United Arab Emirates ( 1967); Algeria ( 1969); Nigeria ( 1971); Ecuador ( 1973) – suspended its membership from December 1992-October 2007; Angola ( 2007) and Gabon (1975–1994). OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, in the first five years of its existence. This was moved to Vienna, Austria, on September 1, 1965.

OPEC's objective is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers; an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the industry.