股市造就富貴　熱錢暗藏風險 (轉載)

Local HSI rose by 34% last year，leaving other major Asian stock markets in the dust．(遠勝其他亞洲主要股市）Our Exchange Fund （外匯基金）racked up （慣用語．獲得，累積）a huge return，and local tyconns also saw their wealth ballon up (身家暴漲），taking up the top positions in the region's wealthiest list．But that doesn't mean that it will be smooth sailing for global and local stock market this year．Two risks，particularly，have to be watched．

港股恆指去年大升三成四，遠勝其他亞洲主要股市，不但令金管局外匯基金大賺，亦令本港富豪身家暴漲，在亞洲富豪榜名列前茅．但這不代表今年環球股市與港股必然順景，２個風險尤需關注．

First of all，overflowing liquidity is the main propeller of the global stock market bonanza (大旺）of the lst few years．But will it tirn into an ebb（退潮）？US interest rate will go down this year，facilitating capital expansion．But several years of easy liquidity has weakened the risk management mentality，some funds may have borrowed heavily for investment．

其一，近年環球股市大旺，資金氾濫是主要推手，但資金會否逆轉退潮？美國今年應該將減息，利好資金經過數年漲潮，風險管理意識下降，部份可能大舉借貸投資．

What if there is some sudden change，say，Japan has a sudden interest rate hike，will funds that have made cheap Yen loans for investment be forced to dump their global stocks to cut down debet and thus cause a rapid shrinking of capital？　If some financial institutions burn their fingers （慣用語．自討苦吃，吃虧，吃苦頭）for being too affressive，will it lead to the domino effect and cause the banks to tighten credit？

假如資金供應突變，如日本突然大幅加息，會否令借廉價日圓投資的基金要全球沽貨減債．令資金急速收緊？若有金融機構太進取而出事，會否再出現骨牌效應，令銀行緊縮信貸？　

Secondly，with the fast speed hot money is flowing into Asia，central banks of the region are worried about the formation of a bubble and followng it a financial turmoil similar to the one in 1997．Thailand last year attempted to stem （動詞．遏止，阻止，堵塞）the tide of hot money with foreign exchange control，and last Monday，South Korea also eased overseas investment control to trim the rising Won．

其二，熱錢目前湧入亞洲的步伐極速，令亞洲國家央行擔心會否造成泡沫，繼後出現９７年般的金融風暴．泰國去年底便用外匯管制阻遏熱錢，南韓本周一亦放寬投資海外限制，遏韓圜強勢．

撰文：Teric　＠經濟日報．行政專欄．中英聯合社評