20/06/2009
2009/06/20 05:30:21 網誌分類: 未分類
Date | 20/06/2009 | change | 19/06/2009 | change | 18/06/2009 | change |
ADR HSI | 18012 | 91.1 | 17937 | 160.41 | 18045 | -39.7 |
#5 | $67.29 | $0.69 | $66.65 | $0.75 | $67.13 | +$0.38 |
#941 | $76.37 | $0.22 | $76.77 | $0.67 | $77.04 | -$0.16 |
#2628 | $28.26 | $0.11 | $28.44 | $0.14 | $28.48 | -$0.22 |
#883 | $9.61 | -$0.02 | $9.67 | $0.09 | $9.6 | -$0.16 |
#857 | $8.43 | -$0.05 | $8.51 | $0.06 | $8.51 | -$0.14 |
VIX | 27.99 | -2.04 | 30.03 | -1.51 | 31.54 | -1.14 |
US Dollar Index | 80.58 | 0.4 | 80.18 | -0.64 | 80.82 | -0.38 |
CRB | 252.79 | -4.06 | 256.85 | 0.03 | 256.82 | 0.97 |
Baltic Dry Index | 4073 | 47 | 4026 | 75 | 3951 | 188 |
3-month Hibor | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |||
3-month Libor | 0.61% | 0.61% | 0.61% | |||
OIS | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.22% | |||
Fed Rate | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |||
Ted Spread | 44.35 | 43.63 | 44.97 | |||
Yield of 10-year US Treasury | 3.78% | 3.83% | 3.69% | |||
3-month Libor-OIS | 37 b.p. | 37 b.p. | 39 b.p. | |||
3-month Libor-Fed Rate | 36 b.p. | 36 b.p. | 36 b.p. | |||
Gold | US$933.7 | US$932.3 | US$938.8 | |||
Silver | US$14.19 | US$14.19 | US$14.32 | |||
Crude Oil | US$69.65 | US$0.1 | US$71.26 | -US$0.11 | US$70.96 | -US$0.07 |
Yen | 96.26 | 96.58 | 95.8 |
19/06/2009 戰況回顧 :
期指收17915升154
期指價格上升,未平倉上升,成交量下跌,好倉新單進場,好倉優勢。
期權好倉最重倉位在19800其次在20000,18400減少524張、19200增加306張及19800增加383張值得關注﹔淡倉最重倉位在14400其次是16400,爭持位17000至18000,而17200較重倉,17000減少213張及17200增加196張值得關注。
soho: 係6月17日期權C Dec 09 25000有2000張開倉,而6月18日有1011張加注,相信係大户目標價,當然﹔日後變化可以好大。
// 12月 有機會升至 25000 水平 //
dai dai Sir, 驚人的預測啊! 恒指 25000 既 PE 23 好高呀! 我心目中樂觀估計, 年底恒指有機會上 21000, 估唔到你既預測比我更進取, 唔似平日既你啊? 可否詳加解說?
dai dai sir,
thank you very much. although I still not understand very much I will buy some books and study more. hope one day can communicate with you in technical -wise will be so nice la.
good night.
dai dai唔好咁客氣
因為我自己都搵唔到,haha
但你果個系統似乎幾好,聽你講過可以放大縮小,同埋有清晰o既刻度
Zzzzz
low EQ: 訊號同訊號之間出現矛盾經常發生,要做法官角色判斷真偽。最好睇多一、兩日。
1)錘頭見頂要下日出現陰燭確認,即是變成黃昏之星﹔
2)MACD雖頂背馳但數據在正方而且有升穿之勢﹔
3)平均線排列雖利好,但5天及10天線粘合次數太多,可能已失效﹔
4)保歷加通道要配合RSI或STC等確認。
九月離現在太遠,變化可以好大。但由期權數據看,現時 P Sep09 8800有3064張,而C Sep 09 22600有2000張,大約可以看到好淡範圍。
111:
dai dai sir,
thank you very mcuh for your reply to 165.
I want to learn a bit of analysing from you . would you please explain to me the following? they seems with some conflict.
)MACD 已頂背馳﹔
2)錘頭見頂訊號﹔
3)頂部大成交-------------the above three points meaning 165 will has adjustment soon?
6)升穿保歷加通道頂,通道開始擴濶------this means the stock price can go higher?
dai dai相信七月會跌至16600水平以下,而九月會較差,12月有機會升至25000水平-----------Sep will d rop down to 15000 or below? what level you will suggest us to start buying?
新股不宜長揸----because no profit history ?
but 773 seems with the support from government(環保) and the bussibess just meet the 大量基建上馬, which will need a lot of metal. although the entrance level for its bussiness is low but big company is always better than small ones.
Sorry it seems that I am looking for some reasons to support my long holding of it, I really want to know if my analyse is wrong. Off course if HSI is going to drop down to 16000, 773 may drop through the launching price?
thanks a lot for your time in answering again!
吃飯末呀?希望唔阻您!thanks a lot lot!
dai dai
頸線點定架,禁樣係咪頸線
111:簡sir
因此,恒指如下破(4)浪底17710點,則(2)浪調整目標為15253-16175點,他日(3)浪狂升,因為九年、十八年及三十六年循環低位,去年10月已見底,以及已展開新的九年、十八年及三十六年上升循環。
dai dai
簡sir
係咪指恆指先跌回 可見16175點至15253點 之後會抽上去,牛市二期恆指會上去過20000己上
Low-EQ: 新股不宜長揸。
Low-EQ: 中國光大165注意事項
1)MACD 已頂背馳﹔
2)錘頭見頂訊號﹔
3)頂部大成交﹔
4)平均線排列仍好﹔
5)在上升軌L之上,仍好﹔
6)升穿保歷加通道頂,通道開始擴濶。
dai dai相信七月會跌至16600水平以下,而九月會較差,12月有機會升至25000水平。
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dai dai Sir,
Thank you and wait for your analyse of the stocks 165,773.
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY.
dai dai sir.午安.送顆星星給你 !
小薯仔: 唔好意思,恆指就有,期指真係揾唔到。
dai dai 午安!
111: 您好,午安呀!
See you later, 886!
dai dai sir
早晨 祝父親節快樂
依家禁早都禁熱鬧
LI-LI: dai dai很著重保健,都算有啲心得,得閒可以交流吓。
dai dai sir 及 各位, 早晨.
dai dai sir 及 各位, 預祝父親節快樂 !!!!!
dai dai sir, 相信你是一位 fit fit fit 及 冷靜 冷靜 冷靜 的父親吧 .
圍村阿伯: dai dai唔游水,怕氯氣,您可以放心。
dai dai,請你千萬不要改游冬泳,我怕我老婆又叫我學你 !
圍村阿伯 : 每朝做伸展運動半小時,跑步半小時,好正架!
dai dai,唔知自己有冇睇錯或誤解了,看見小時圖RSI由之前的頂背馳已開始由低位回升,MACD , STC 和 William %R 都有從低位回升現象,所以熊仔先離場觀望,侯高再打算。
今早晨運了一個多小時(之前果次我都唔記得是多少年前),好累!dai dai,你每天跑多少時間?
阿伯: 注意事項
1) 保歷加通道已收窄,一旦擴濶將現單邊市,現時方向未明,但指數在中軸之下﹔
2) SMA(5)升穿SMA(10)﹔
3) 有三個小時恆指在最低位17750左右現支持或反彈﹔
4) RSI 44.56,方向向下﹔
5) 向上或向下機會均等。
NeW 哥 : 謝謝!
Athena :
1) Black 5 days, pink 10 days, green 30days, blue 250 days, light brown 50 days , Dark Brown 保歷加通道中軸﹔
2) RSI 只適合上落市,單邊市會失效,要配合其他分析,才較準確﹔
3)通道收窄後擴濶會出現單邊市,但方向未明,要用RSI、STC等輔助確認,升穿己是較後期。
dai dai兄,謝謝提示,靜侯出擊指示。
並預祝你和你的家人有一個溫馨、愉快的父親節!
Dai Dai Sir,
早晨!
今早要返工! 多謝你教我看圖!
有幾個問題想請教您:
1. 保歷加通道內不同顏色的線代表甚麼日線?(只知黑線是股價走勢)
2. RSI已在60左右是否一定意味走勢向上? (是否可以此判斷其它股票?)
3. 升穿通道頂,意味將出現單邊市 (單邊市是否可以是升或跌)?
謝謝回覆!
祝週末愉快及父親節快樂 (如適用)
聯康生物690 dai dai 用保歷加通道分析方便您學習
聯康在5月20日,保歷加通道仍收窄(垂直紅線位置),但在5月21日已擴濶並升穿通道頂,意味將出現單邊市,由於RSI已在60左右,方向向上,確認是升市(買進時機),連升8日,6月4日返回通道內開始調整。上阻力0.145﹔支持0.077。
lowEQ : 期權因為沒有Long,Short資料,只有Call, Put只能提供一個範圍(上下限),其他要靠經驗及感覺。
下午覆您股票分析。
kam sir,
good morning , you are here . say hello sin.
dai dai sir, forgot the star , give back already .
good morning dai dai sir,
(1)would you please analyse 165?
I discover that MACD trend is down while the price is up , is this 頂背馳?on Friday, there is a hammer with increase volume , and the price already out the bollinger top, will there be a pull down ?I really want to buy it, would you please give me some suggestions what price can I set ?
(2)besides, did you apply 773中國金屬再生資源? can this stock keep as long term investment? or what price do you think is better to sell?
(3) from your HSI option observation, you think that HSI will go to 20000 or even higher? did you take any action recently?
billion thanks to your help.
金曹兄: 您好, 早晨呀!好心急呀,今日都想睇大户部署。Kaka!
早晨!
rosswai :謝謝!
NeW 哥 : 期權所見,七月第一個位16600,跟住15400及15000。
cj08 : VIX又名恐慌指數,情緒變化會好大,30只不過是約數,有時用陰陽燭會準的。
參觀看分析,謝謝!送星星。
Morning!
dai dai兄,早晨!好多人都等緊簡sir所講七月既大跌入市,我都唔例外,你呢?。雖然有時忙無留言,不過總會黎你屋企學野同送星星ga。多謝!
早晨 dai dai
謝謝您的分析,
以前好像說vix在30以下見底,是否記錯?如是,美股是否有較大反彈?/
早晨 dai dai。美股又來個估佢唔到?依家上又得?落又得?我昨天臨收市都平了熊倉,看二十天小時圖,恆指好似在17700築了底(可能只是短期),怕會反彈,所以不留倉過週末。dai dai 可否幫我看看小時圖? Thx!
我今早出去走幾圈先,886。
簡sir:
MACD三頂背馳見頂,現進入牛市二期(2)浪調整,料以a、b、c浪向下尋底。如調整0.382-0.5,可見16175點至15253點。
恒指MACD、9RSI、STC(Slow)、DMI、OBV、14%R、SAR均現淡勢,6月以「陀螺」「烏雲蓋頂」,預料7月有較大跌幅。