高位引爆

2010/04/18 21:18:55 網誌分類: 經濟

18 Apr

這兩天很忙碌，除了陪家人吃喝玩樂這個重要節目之外，關於投資方面的還做了三件。

1，在亞K的網誌見到有個非常好用的免費英文Excel檔案，可以用來計算股票期權的預期盈虧、對沖值和時間值等數據，一時技癢，盡快修改了一個香港版本，用來計算國壽、中移動、神華、中海油等等的期權金和最佳行使價便更有把握。

2，安裝新的SONY EB17 電腦，以及一大堆TQ、MetaStock、Sharp Point、Office、PhotoShop、Wuala等軟件，花費不少精力。揾食工具當然要用心調較得順手合意。

3，跟進高盛這「黑天鵝」事件的發展。華爾街繼投資大行高盛被美國證交會指控涉嫌詐騙後，另一投資大行美林（Merrill Lynch）亦被荷蘭一間銀行指涉及類似詐騙行為，令該銀行損失4500萬美元（約3.5億港元）。兩大行涉及欺詐行為的消息震動整個華爾街，這兩個指控可能只是冰山一角，用陰謀論估計，調查大行這些消息大戶不會毫無警覺，美股一路不尋常用挾上，大戶高位出貨和LONG PUT的機會很高。不斷挾高就是等待在高位引爆。跌市不能心急撈底，暫時觀察明天在21400是否有支持。4月可能還會挾高結算，如不能守在21670樓上，5月恐怕會有較深的調整。

股票期權速覽。

http://www.editgrid.com/user/jincao/CycleOption-Stock

金曹 jin.cao@hotmail.com..

http://blogcity.hkheadline.com/jincao

免責聲明/Disclaimer：本網誌宗旨是讓小投資者能夠互相支持，增加財經知識和改善投資心理素質，以期早日達到財務自由。本網誌一切言論純粹是個人意見或經驗分享，絕不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦任何投資產品。本人亦不保證所引述的資料的真確性和完整性。股價可升可跌，投資證券或衍生工具附有重大風險，讀者務請運用獨立思考能力自行分析和驗證。一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。

回應 (6)

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2010/04/19 07:42:35 回覆

金曹回覆raytam，

我每日都貼免費公益軟件「港交所股票期權速覽」，裡面有很多最基本的數據、亦可以找到歷史波幅那一欄。市場做的引伸波幅可能更高，每日收市後在港交所找到。股票期權實用網站有整所有網站連結。

股票期權速覽。

http://www.editgrid.com/user/jincao/CycleOption-Stock

股票期權實用網站。

http://www.cycleoption.com.hk/page07.htm

2010/04/19 07:19:15 回覆

Good morning Brother Kam: ^^

Thanks for your advice.

Thanks! ${#icons_panda15}$

2010/04/19 03:50:12 回覆

{#m51.jpg}

2010/04/19 02:35:05 回覆

Kam hing, I used the Excel worksheet before and just like you to modified it to fit the stock option. However,do you know where to find the historical volatility ?

Furthermore, do you know how to combine the due month and next month data into one sheet ? as you know , the profile may contain the due month or next month option. In some case, even include the quarter month.

thanks your help in advance

2010/04/19 01:38:23 回覆

史哥，Metastock顯示短期恆指支持21135、阻力22664。我估4月大戶會托一托市，營造樂觀氣氛，散戶只能見步行步，切忌心急撈底。

2010/04/18 21:56:23 回覆

Good Evening Brother Kam: ^^

For your reference:

史哥 18/4/2010 1:50:59

From the below daily graph-HSI, everyone can see that the HSI started a rally again after passing through the SMA(120) . The SMA(120) is around a '21456' now. That means the index will turn to weak again if it can not stand on '21456' after 3:45pm next Monday. If so the final supporting point will be around '21200' Which is the lower point of the upper line. Besides, there is a head-shoulder-top showing on the below graph also. By measurement the target will be '21800' - '600'('22400'- '21800')= 21200 also.

In addition, the HSI had always a '1200' to '1600' points of adjustment. For '1200' points of return is equal to ' 21200' also.

By referring to the next graph, everyone can see that, the HSI turn to strong again after standing on the lblue ine DMA again. The line is around a '21200' also now.

By taking all the above factors into account, the '21200' is the main critial point for the HSI.

P.S As the HSI had always a '1600' points of adjustment only before, that means the '20800'('22400'-1600) will be the final traget for the HSI.

P.s For a healthly adjustment, the HSI should not break through the average line SMA(10) showing on the weekly graph again. The SMA(10) is around a '21080'.

恒指在四月份將會以 21080 為中軸, 上下1300點波動, 現時走勢向上

19840- 20455- ( 21080) -21712- 22363

P.s Brother Kam.

Have you any comments ?

Thanks! ${#icons_panda9}$

{#hsi.jpg}

月曆