希臘債券危機
2010/04/28 10:00:16 網誌分類: 恆指走勢
受希臘債券評級被標普降至垃圾級別影響,美股大跌超過200點,跌穿11000點。港股ADR亦難逃大跌厄運,匯控跌穿80元。
港股開市很可能裂口下跌400至500點,但由於昨日日線圖已出現一個介乎21489至21383的裂口,今日跌至20700點應有支持。港股250天線已升至20500點左右,大市在20400至20700點應能一守,再大跌空間不大。市況一旦回穩,恆指可輕易升回21500點水平,補回以上兩個下跌裂口。
在下於09年5月底改變看法,認為港股已轉牛市,其中重要前提是恆指升穿250天線後不應再跌穿該線以下10%的水平。以現時20500點計算,即大市不應跌穿18300至18500點的區域,否則牛市論或不能成立。
Hi mkm,
Thanks for your interesting bible story.
The bailout of Greece is almost a must for all EU members, as no one can afford a default in Greece which may lead to demise of Euro.
Especially, the US has just managed to get rid of the debacle of the failure of their banks. I am pretty sure that the bailout of Greece will be in line with American interests.
As such, I don’ t expect that the Greece crisis will escalate into another global financial catastrophe. Instead, I am more worried about the Mainland authority’s austerity measures.
hi Mr Fisher,
Well, what do you think about the current PIIGS debt crisis?
I confess that i know very little, and I am normally not a conspiracy junkie, but the fact that another "crisis" is about to be triggered by downgrading is a parallel to the same rating agencies giving CDO's AAA grade before the financial crisis.
Vultures fly overhead when they smell "death".
In the Bible, there was a story about a Hebrew named Joseph, who became the 2nd in command of all Egypt, telling all Egyptians to sell themselves and their sons and daughters to the Pharoah for grain during a severe famine........the grain was in fact a tax upon the people in years of bountiful harvests........
Interesting observation from Marc Mobius, at least he's not a fear-mongerer - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0YQ1Qd60rLk
Hi naive,
I' m not so sure whether HSI will d rop to below 20000 this time, as the fundamentals remain sound.
For your information, I guess it is 50-50 that the Dow may break through 14000, the peak seen in 2007. If that happens, HSI may stay above 30000.
Hi :
Thank your for your analysis.
Hope your forecast is correct because I plan to buy at 19,500 and 18,500. The last bet will be at 10% up from the HSI bottom or at 16,000 if bear really comes back.
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中信銀行將於明日(4月28日)公布2009年全年業績,本社綜合15間券商預測,估計其去年純利約141.51億元至170.49億元(人民幣,下同)(見下表),對比08年同期純利133.54億元;綜合09年平均約151.78億元,按年升13.7%,中位數為純利150.38億元,按年升12.6%。
摩根大通預期,中信銀行去年純利151.74億元,按年升13.6%,料淨利息收入350.58億元,按年跌3%,非利息收入42.92億元,按年持平,料淨息差由08年3.26%降至2.5%,料去年每股盈利為0.39元,料其核心資本充足比率為9%,資本充足率為10.6%,予其「增持」的投資評級及目標價8.6元。
RBS估計,中信銀行全年純利按年升8.7%至145.2億元,料去年淨利息收入跌1.2%至335.13億元,非利息收入至4.4億元,料其淨息差為2.56%,料其去年第4季淨息差可擴闊6個點子,今年首季可擴闊5個點子,但小少中型銀行約10至28個點子,但基於其估值便值,予「買入」的投資評級,及目標價6.4元。
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