信行09年業績
中信行首季多賺28%
【明報專訊】壓軸公布全年業績的內銀股中信銀行（0998），去年賺143.2億元（人民幣‧下同），按年增7.7％，略遜市場預期；今年首季盈利則顯著提升逾28％至43.1億元，當中無論淨利息收入抑或費用收入都大幅增長。
中信行去年每股盈利倒退7.5％至0.37元，每股派末期息則增加逾3％至0.088元，派息比率約為23.8％，較前年輕微倒退。中信行公布業績前，股價逆市靠穩，僅跌0.4％至5.28港元。
去年盈利增7.7% 遜預期
該行去年因短期貸款息差收窄明顯，拖累收入，惟情况在去年底至今年初已顯著改善。回顧去年，由於淨息差收窄0.65個百分點至2.51％，即使貸款躍升46％，淨利息收入仍倒退4％，情况與招商銀行（3968）相若。惟業績報告披露，12月底淨息差已改善至2.65％，較5月份的谷底反彈0.24個百分點；至今年首季淨息差似乎更加擴闊，季內貸款雖僅增長6.3％，但淨利息收入已大幅增加逾四成。
另外，首季淨手續費及佣金收入，亦如已公布首季業績的中行（3988）般，大幅提升35％。資產質素方面，去年貸款減值損失減少近六成，惟今年首季則按年增加逾九成。原因是該行在首季大肆增加撥備覆蓋率，由去年底未夠監管要求的150％，提升至今年3月底的170.08％；不良貸款率繼續下降至上季末的0.84％。
中信行資本充足率及核心資本充足率，分別下降至9.34％和8.31％，前者已低過銀監會對中小型銀行不低於10％的要求。
中信銀行去年賺了143億人民幣，較08年多賺7%，屬市場預期下限。
不過，其淨利息收入減少4%，原因與去年息差大幅收窄有關，但去年底和今年初已見明顯反彈(去年12月已達2.65%，較一眾巨無霸國有銀行的淨息差還高)。如今年淨息差的反彈勢頭保持，即使今年貸款增幅大幅放緩，淨利息收入很可能仍會錄得顯著增長。今年餘下時間內地加息機會頗大，淨息差有機會進一步擴闊，有利內銀業績(貸款需求不一定因加息而減少，因今年內地經濟幾乎肯定仍會錄得10%以上的增幅)。
信行的資本充足率已跌至低於銀監規定的水平，董事長孔丹早前已表示銀行會發行次級債集資補充資本金(但未提及規模)，估計年內公布供股計劃的機會不高。
總結而言，今年中信銀行首季錄得28%的增長，開局勢頭良好。全年如能保持此佳績，今年盈利增幅有望進一步提速，有利股價。
Naive,
Thanks for your input.
I think the mainland property market is really crazy now. In the urban area of Shanghai (like 虹口), the 100-square-meter (about 1074 square feet) apartment is now worth over 3 million RMB. Even in HK, it is not so easy to buy apartment at this price level. I believe it is even more difficult for the people in the mainland to purchase their own home, given that their salary level is just one fourth of HK people.
I will be happy to buy one in Shanghai if the price ｄ ｒｏｐs by around 50%. Otherwise, I don' t think it is a good investment opportunity.
I agree with you and thank you for your generious advice.
Different market situation needs different strategy. When market change, I may need you to advise me another strategy.
Just as an example. China government is now using all kinds of policies to curb or press down realty price. So it may be a good time to pick a property 6 months later when the realty price is down to a level good for investment. I believe China will be in prosperity in coming 20 years and realty price will be escalated along with economic growth. My wife has China ID card and so we are busy now to source the realty market.
Hi Naive
Your strategy is a smart one.
Please note that this sort of accumulation strategy is effective only under the premise that the HSI is in bull market. Once there are signs suggesting otherwise, you should change your strategy.
hi :
Actually some of share prices are already at the prices in 2010-Feb when HSI was around 19500. So I am watching and begin to buy some when the prices are right. And buy some whenever HSI is down for 1000-1500 points.