標普500大盤向淡吞噬

2010/06/26 08:43:30 網誌分類: 經濟

26 Jun

6月25日歐洲股市繼續回落，美股超賣反彈但大盤標普500指數的20天線再次失守，收1076，周線圖更出現向淡吞噬大陰燭，一周內連續下破20周線1132及50周線1090兩個重要支持位，走勢差。十年美債息跌至接近3厘，表示資金泊在美債避險。

滬深300在4月中周線圖出現大陰燭破50周線後，要經歷兩個月才見低位支持，照時間推算，美股在8月中有機會見到低位支持。由於美股走勢將會影響全球股市，現時仍維持逢高減持高PE及不派息的股份，增持現金等農行上市後出現調整買入或short put防守力較強的建行、工行、國壽等。支持位或short put接貨的行使價可參考每周的恆指及權重權及海龜N值報表（網誌分類：四叔五寶）。

香港股票期權速覽

http://www.editgrid.com/user/JinCao/CycleOption-Stock

免費公益軟件：香港股票期權組合管理stock option freeware下載區

http://www.wuala.com/JinCao/CycleOption-Stock

恆生指數HSI Index 每月收市價、市盈率 PE、股息率 Yield。

http://www.editgrid.com/user/jincao/HSI

金曹 jin.cao@hotmail.com..

http://blogcity.hkheadline.com/jincao

免責聲明/Disclaimer：本網誌宗旨是讓小投資者能夠互相支持，增加財經知識和改善投資心理素質，以期早日達到財務自由。本網誌一切言論純粹是個人意見或經驗分享，絕不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦任何投資產品。本人亦不保證所引述的資料的真確性和完整性。股價可升可跌，投資證券或衍生工具附有重大風險，讀者務請運用獨立思考能力自行分析和驗證。一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。

回應 (7)

我要發表

2010/06/28 08:58:08 回覆

金師兄所言有理,謝謝意見。

2010/06/27 22:56:29 回覆

Evening Brother Kam:

IcIc!

I think that the HSI is just a sthort term rebounding also.

Thanks! ${#icons_panda12}$

hd388 2010/06/27 21:32:18 回覆

金兄及各位大家好： ${#icono_77}$

2010/06/27 20:57:34 回覆

金曹回覆網友，

有網友問在那裡可以得到每天港股成交的資訊。可以參考我的網誌分類：「港交所實用資訊」。

路仁，大朋友托高指數才轉七月倉，我見到有點驚，如果7月做好倉應盡量在低位轉，無理由拉高來轉。

史哥，現時評估，美股就算反彈，也只是營造右肩，雖然未必出現雙底衰退大熊市，但有機會以較長的調整時間來抵消較深的跌幅。通常港股比較跟美股走勢，但A股對港股的影響力日漸增強。如美股反彈營造右肩，加上A股反彈，港股才有條件再上，相反，美股或A股再跌，港股難以上升。七月初估計恆指最多係反彈到熊證大倉位21500屠殺熊仔，之後仍是偏淡。ADX(9)始終是滯後指標，用來評估大行情的升跌變化的反應不夠敏銳。MACD看趨勢是比較準，港股MACD線沒有走出一浪高於一浪的形態，屬升有限的格局。最近美州政府及中國地方債的還款能力又被市場提及，空穴來風未必無因，如美國加洲出現信貸危險，對股市的殺傷力會比希臘大得多，中國國債及地方債相對GDP並不多、相對容易應付、但內銀股因農行上市被托高、又會捱沽。

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-25/states-of-crisis-widen-as-46-governments-in-u-s-face-greek-style-deficits.html

2010/06/27 14:44:45 回覆

{#hi5.gif}

2010/06/27 00:34:47 回覆

史哥 27/6/2010 0:05:05

Evening Brother Kam: ^^

史哥 27/6/2010 0:01:11

Brother dai dai-

史哥 26/6/2010 21:20:40

Evening Brother dai dai: ^^

道指周線圖

1）平均線出現「死亡谷」利淡訊號﹔

2）陰陽燭出現「傾盆大雨」利淡訊號﹔

相信下周都是跌市。?

Sorry! ${#icons_panda12}$

However, I found that the line SMA(50) showing on the weekly graph is in a upward direction now. It closed just a little bit lower than that of the the line SMA(50) only.

Besides, I had also found that the signal ADX(9) showing on the daily graph is at a lower lelvel ( 波幅. is very small now) that means it will give a new trend soon.) I think that it will start a new trend on the starting of july. Moreover, I also found that most of the bear for Dow's is in a relative high level also.

By taking all the above factors into account that I think the '10100' can give a strong support for Dow's and the Dow's will start a rally soon

From the below daily graph, you can see that it will give a new trend when the signal ADX(9) turn to narrow with both of the signals MACD & %K%D had a cross over.

The signal ADX(9) had already turned to narrow now with both of the Signal MACD and %K%D wil try to cross over soon. That means the Dow's will give a new trend soon .

{#dows.jpg}

史哥 26/6/2010 23:49:37

Brother dai dai:

From the below graph, you can see that the signal ADX(9) had alredy cross over. Besides, the siganl MACD had already given a diverge signal also. As the ADX(9) had already sticked together again that means it will give a new trend soon. I think that the trend is up as the signal MACD will stand on '0' point soon also.

{#dows.jpg}

P.s I had also found that the sp500 showing on the daily graph, had the same situation now also.

What do you think so? ${#icons_panda12}$

2010/06/26 09:08:40 回覆

金 sir 及各位早晨！ {#201005310812274066.gif}

月曆