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捕捉下一個股市泡沫

2010/10/12 13:02:38 網誌分類: 經濟
12 Oct

10月5日

捕捉下一個股市泡沫
2010年10月5日 信報研究部 徐天任

聯邦政府向市場投入萬億美元刺激經濟,一年多過去了,美國就業情況依然未能顯著改善,工資停滯不前影響市民的消費意欲,需求疲弱令美國經濟反而有收縮壓力;聯儲局聲言因應經濟情況隨時再量寬。管理超過千億美元資產的GMO創辦人Jeremy Grantham認為數據顯示不少資產價格已由便宜轉為昂貴,但他表明聯儲局仍會出於政治需要為市場注射強心針令資產價格進一步泡沫化。

全球最大資產管理公司之一的GMO主席Jeremy Grantham今年5月17日應邀出席CFA Institute的2010周年會議以「調動你的資產」(Move Your Assets!)為題發表了約1小時的演說。Grantham憶述1960年代他入行時正值經濟的黃金歲月,當時金融服務業佔GDP份額的3%,主要來自信用狀和存款戶口等必需的傳統銀行業務,隨着銀行投資管理業務以及互惠基金蓬勃興起,到2007年相關比率已增至7.5%,但這增幅是其他非金融業儲蓄率下跌的結果。他解釋,假設資產管理公司提高收費0.5%,非金融機關的資產負債表便被抽取0.5%到了資產管理公司的損益表作為收入,即是說金融服務業只是「侵吞」了其他行業板塊對經濟的長期貢獻;Grantham在GMO今年7月號季度通信更直指金融體系在寬鬆的監管條例下只顧追逐本身的盈利、花紅和收費。

他批評現在的金融業已道德缺陷(ethical hole)並失控而變成無賴的行業(rogue industry),Grantham以他最熟悉的資產管理為例指出,25年之前的大型銀行高層絕不會容許成立一個與客戶對賭的投行盤房(proprietary desk),現今的道德標準已變成只要能賺錢但不會引致鎯鐺入獄的行為都可以接受。Grantham並為自己和GMO多年來容忍業界道德淪落非但袖手旁觀並繼續幫襯投資銀行而感羞愧。

13年間3個金融泡沫

Grantham話題一變由金融業轉到宏觀經濟;1960-1980美國總債務約為GDP的1倍多並一直平穩維持相若比率,Grantham參考最近二十多年數據發現,總債務無間斷上升並已超越GDP的3倍,但在格林斯平及貝南奇大部分時間實行低息政策下,GDP不但比不上1965年以前多年平均3%漲幅(利率愈低應該愈多人借錢發展,工廠增產及庫存增長將推動GDP上升),反而拾級下降,由此證明經濟增長與債務並沒有必然關係,貝南奇藉發債救市從而促進GDP增長2%的希望很大機會落空,事實上,環球多國在量寬效應逐漸消散後經濟增長已顯著放緩。Grantham今年4月25日接受《金融時報》訪問時指出,通常兩個泡沫相隔大約20年,因為各類資產金融泡沫爆破大幅貶值嚇倒投資者不敢貿然入市,但格林斯平及貝南奇兩位聯儲局主席長時間人為壓低利率、政府債務及貨幣供應暴增卻會刺激起人們的投機意欲,市場遭扭曲的結果是前所未有地在短短13年間出現3個金融泡沫──科網股泡沫、房屋泡沫和現今的債務泡沫。

28次測市全中的模式

金融泡沫對國家經濟的傷害是巨大而深遠的,但正確認識泡沫也可以從中找到機會。Grantham分析,金融泡沫最後會令包括股票等資產「重返中位值」(mean reversion,Grantham和他的研究小組蒐集歷年數據界定何謂泡沫後找出34個泡沫,其中32個包括美國房市已回到泡沫前重新正常增長走勢,還有2個在演進中的泡沫是英國和澳洲的房市),他在2009年4月在網誌以「恐慌的時候再投資」(Reinvesting when terrified)預言美國將經歷「最後狂熱」(last hurrah)然後步入7個荒年(seven lean years),即是美股在急跌之前會先來一次最後的升市。Grantham並向聽眾展示由4月30日起計標普500未來7年平均回報的綜合分析模式,他解釋,標普500的經周期調整的市盈率平均為14倍,他估計市盈率將由目前的22.7倍收縮至15倍,加上股息、邊際利潤上升、業務增長等因素,標普500未來7年扣除通脹的每年平均回報為0.3%。

Grantham又利用該模式進一步分析其他資產的投資回報(他強調該模式的準繩度極高,自從1994年以來創出28次預測全中的驚人紀錄),他特別提到新興市場股市及木材,估計未來7年經通脹調整每年平均回報達4.7%及6.0%。Grantham分析,新興市場股市正邁進泡沫,而當年日經和納斯特在泡沫期間的市盈率約為環球其他股市的3倍,加上IMF對新興市場和發達國家的GDP增長預測為6%及2.25%的大幅差距,Grantham坦言單單這兩項因素已吸引他把個人基金的15%投資新興市場。至於商品同樣也進入泡沫,但只有木材他有把握準確分析:木材是反經濟周期的商品,於熊市表現尤其出色,他認為投資木材比主權債務更穩妥,本材在1930年代和1970年代經通脹調整的保值能力出色表現有史可稽,甚至在2008年金融海嘯的衝擊下亦並無損傷。但木材屬於投資渠道少而資金投入大的較冷門「玩意」,Grantham的另一推薦是美國高質股。Grantham對高質股的定義是負債少而持續提供投資回報的股份,他並點名強生、可口可樂和微軟是其中表表者,以GMO的標準,現時美國高質股比標普500已相對便宜。

總統在任第三年無熊市

「總統周期」(Presidential Cycle)歷史統計數據亦加強了Grantham對股市未來12個月泡沫化預測的信心。Grantham統計1932年羅斯福總統在任以來的數據發現,聯儲局每每在總統就任的頭兩年收緊銀根(由每年10月1日至翌年10月1日計算,除了近年格林斯平和貝南奇要對付科網股泡沫和次按危機而例外),尤其是第二年更是股市平均表現最差的日子,到了總統任期第三年,聯儲局多數會配合總統準備下屆大選而製造一些昇平氣氛,例如增加貨幣供應以期刺激就業市場等,過去70年唯一一次例外就是Grantham心目中的英雄伏爾克(Paul Volcker)為了實踐打擊通脹的使命,頂住白宮的壓力而堅拒減息,但數據顯示總統任期第三年股市表現比其他年份平均高約15%,而且該年從未出現過熊市,即使韓戰爆發也不例外,當年大市因為發生戰爭也只不過下跌2%,不能算是熊市。聯儲局的「定期」放鬆銀根仿似給予投機者一個心理預期:在總統任期第三年不妨放膽投機一博,大市若出現問題我會全力幫你一把。而2011年便是奧巴馬在任第三年,Grantham預期「最後狂熱」即將出現,美股及環球股市會再一次出現泡沫。但Grantham警告說.若2011年真的催谷牛市出來反而要十分小心,因為聯儲局到下一個泡沫爆破時已再無彈藥可用。

最後,Grantham回答有關金價走勢提問時坦言他痛恨黃金,但他透露個人剛於發表演說前買入黃金;然而,他認為黃金只是「慌不擇路最後的避難所」(the last refuge of the desperate),而且市場對未來金價的預期由800至6000美元,他根本無從分析黃金的實質價值。「知之為知之,不知為不知,是知也」,這就是大師級的資產管理高手與普通投資經理的分別。
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慳妹
慳妹 2013/01/10

chanreborn:

Happy anniversary to you and Little Bee!

慳妹
慳妹 2012/01/10

chanreborn & Little Bee:

   

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花姐
花姐 2011/12/07

看完真的茅塞頓開

非常認同「人生有破缺,喜悅自相隨,人生無破缺,喜悅從何說。」

你很幸福有如此賢妻

祝夫妻恩愛白頭偕老

chanreborn
chanreborn 2011/02/17
Wilshere and Szczesny give Arsenal far more authority and guts

By Myles Palmer

Arsenal 2 Barcelona 1

Villa 26, Van Persie 78, Arshavin 83

____________________________

The key player in the Nou Camp will be Szczesny.

So pray that nothing happens to Arsenal’s goalkeeper between now and Tuesday, March 8th.

Barcelona’s style is cleverly-timed runs onto sharp little passes, which c reates a lot of one-on-one chances with the keeper.

Wojciech Szczesny’s fine positional judgement makes him a master of making opponents shoot into the side-netting or just past the post.

On the goal, he was a bit unlucky because David Villa, a razor finisher in these situations, slotted between his legs.

By contrast, he got lucky on the loose ball after his save, when the scrambling Messi headed in but was flagged offside. Messi wasn't offside.

For me, Szczesny was Arsenal’s best player last night for that reason. Making Messi miss was the name of the game.

Yes, Koscielny played his finest game in an Arsenal shirt.

Yes, Jack Wilshere played with remarkable authority at the heart of the team. England need to play Jack football, Fabio - not Capello football.

Yes, of course, CL knock-out ties are a game of four halves.

Arsenal lost the first half 1-0 and won the second half 2-0 and halves three and four will roll round 20 days from now.

Arsenal raised their tempo after half-time and the game turned on 68 when Keita and Arshavin came on.

Keita replaced Villa to stiffen Barca's midfield, which was running out of steam, and allowed young Busquets to go ball-hunting further up the field.

Arshavin’s arrival (for Song) allowed him to link in a cool manner with Clichy, who played a killer ball forward into the box with his right-foot and gave Van Persie a chance to hit a mighty left-foot shot on the half- volley inside the near post of Victor Valdes for 1-1.

Valdes has always had flaky moments. That blunder by allowed Arsenal back into a game that Barcelona were still playing mostly in Arsenal's half.

Still, defending deeper can be good. You can only counter-attack if your opponents are in your half of the field. You can attack too much in a game. If you attack less, you often score more.

Frankly, Fabregas, Eboue and Walcott had been crap.

All three played crap. Only a blinkered, badge-kissing nincompoop would say any of those three played well last night.

Arsenal had nothing on the right flank but now, suddenly, that was where the winning goal came from after a fabulous move.

The cool Koscielny picked up the ball in his penalty area, passed to Bendtner, who passed infield to Wilshere, then quickly forward to Fabregas, who instantly released Nasri with a superb ball down the right flank.

Nasri could have tried the obvious with a low cross to the far post but chose instead to play a lovely pass which allowed Arshavin to curl his sidefoot shot behind Abidal and into the net from 15 yards.

That quality goal gave Arsenal their first victory against Barcelona and it set the seal on the pulsating, rocking, thrilling night that the Emirates has needed since 2006.

Sporting Gijon was a factor last night because game was much harder than the Wolves game was for Arsenal .

After two and half years of staggering success, and intensifying pressure, Barcelona are showing signs of burn-out, so Pep has to husband his resources very carefully.

Coming back off an international break, which is mostly where Barcelona d rop their points, he conceded an early goal at Gijon in a game that was very passionate, intense and physical, since Gijon are fighting for their lives just above the drop-zone.

 I was really enjoying the game but as the second half went on I was thinking : This is taking a lot out of Barcelona !

Indeed, it was a helluva battle that was taking a lot out of both sides.

Just as the commentators began to say that David Villa was about to be taken off, he glided onto a wonder-pass from Messi and chipped the keeper from the edge of the box and it finished 1-1.

Success brings a heavy schedule.

The more games you win, the more the pressure is on you. To handle that you need character and guts. Wilshere and Szczesny have given the team a lot more personality and authority than it had last year.

Big characters, big difference.

As Rufus Thomas said, age ain’t nothin’ but a number.

_________________________________________

ARSENAL (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Eboue, Djourou, Koscielny, Clichy; Song (Arshavin, 67), Wilshere; Walcott (Bendtner, 77), Fabregas, Nasri; Van Persie. Subs not used Almunia (gk), Rosicky, Denilson, Squillaci, Gibbs. Booked Song, Nasri, Van Persie

BARCELONA (4-3-3): Valdes; Alves, Pique, Abidal, Maxwell; Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta (Adriano, 88); Pedro, Messi, Villa (Keita, 67). Subs not used Pinto (gk), Bojan, Mascherano, Milito, Afellay. Booked Iniesta, Pique (misses second leg)

Possession :Arsenal 47% Barcelona 53%

Shots on target Arsenal 8 Barcelona 7

Man of the match: Szczesny.

Referee Nicola Rizzoli (Italy) 

Crowd 59,927.