巧茹與小泡泡
巧茹與小泡泡
巧茹與小泡泡

到時唔好話無人出過聲

2007/09/28 01:38:05 網誌分類: 經濟
28 Sep

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次貸危機下的伯南克認沽權證(Bernanke Put)


Jessy Yang | 2007-09-27

 

美聯儲局上周的議息結果既屬於市場預料之內,也屬市場預料之外。最近公佈的一系列經濟數據負面消息多過正面,八月新屋動工降至十二年低位,就業市場出現四年來首次負增長,消費者信心指數也較前月下挫,顯示次按正逐漸擴散至經濟的其他層面。同時,八月份生產者物價指數大幅下滑,消費者物價指數也自去年十月以來首次回落,通脹水平溫和加上經濟疲軟均促使聯儲減息。

 

儘管市場預料聯儲的減息勢在必行,但減息幅度卻出乎預期。聯儲局會後聲明中顯示,針對信貸市場緊縮有可能加劇房屋市場調整並進一步抑制美國經濟發展,公開市場委員會一致同意大幅調減聯邦基金利率50點子,以預先防止負面影響進一步在經濟其他層面上擴散(Forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy)。

 

聯儲局同時再次調低貼現率50點子。聯儲局一個月內兩次調低貼現率共100點子,無疑是為緩解次按風暴下市場信心不足,信貸市場上資金短絀的直接政策措施,屬於經濟學次優理論的最佳示範。次優理論是指在市場機制失靈時,政府應當採用最直接的干預政策。今年七月以來,美聯儲局的一系列措施均屬此類,包括直接向金融市場注資、降低央行對商業銀行的貸款利率以及延長對商業銀行的貸款期限等。

 

相反,降低基準利率對解決流動性短絀而言並非最直接有效政策, 因此議息聲明中的「預先(Forestall)」兩字倍受關注。儘管大幅減息刺激美股隨後走高,但也有市場人士對美股後市發展持審慎態度,揣測是否聯儲局是次大幅減息預示美國經濟成長減緩程度較數據顯示更差,軟著陸可能演變為衰退或是更嚴峻的滯脹局面。

 

長線來看,美國經濟減緩對中小型股份的影響較大型股高。據統計,標準普爾500指數成份股約有45%的收入來自海外,如英特爾盈利的79%來自海外市場,通用電氣則有46%左右,美國本土經濟減緩對大型股的盈利影響相對溫和,建議投資者佈局應當以大型股組合為主。

 

債市方面,近期油價突破八十美元加上聯儲局會後聲明表示現時通脹水平仍值得關注,聯儲局的大幅減息對美國國債市場未有支持。市場普遍擔憂低利率、高油價、加上央行注資舉措不斷下通脹可能被進一步推高,美長債受壓。十年和三十年期國債孽息走高,與兩年期債券的息差擴大。匯市方面,美元對多種貨幣跌到新低,金價每盎司逼近730 美元。美元長線看軟下,投資者可以關注抗通脹、貨幣對沖型的債券組合。

 

現時美國股債後市發展均不樂觀,加上美元走貶,不利美元計價的金融資產,不少投資者因此紛紛將目光轉向包括亞洲在內的一些新興市場國家和地區。儘管近年來不斷有經濟學家發表研究表示,世界各國經濟的發展相互依賴關係有所減弱(Decoupling Effect),歐洲和亞洲日益崛起降低世界各國對美國經濟的依賴性。但這次次按風暴引發環球金融信貸緊縮,儘管亞洲一些市場的基本面並沒有改變,但仍然難以獨善其身,短期內受資金流動影響而表現波幅較大。另外,亞洲區內不少國家已累積一定升幅,市場估值較高。是次美聯儲局大幅減息,雖然有助於回復投資者信心,但也帶來流動性進一步推高市場估值,投資者應當慎防資產泡沫的隱憂。

 

 

 

Will Bernanke Put Save the World?


Jessy Yang | 2007-09-27

 

Last week the expected rate cut by the U.S. Fed turned out to be a surprise. Recently bad news outweighed good news, showing the widening damage caused by the US subprime. The August housing starts fell to the lowest in over 12 years; employment showed a decrease for first time in four years; and August consumer confidence index fell from previous month. On the other hand, both August PPI and CPI went down. Weakening economy and contained inflation are both supportive for rate cut by the Fed.

 

Despite widely expected rate cut by the Fed, a 50 bps cut was a surprising strong move. "Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time", according to the Fed's statement.

 

Meanwhile, the Fed cut the discount rate, at which banks can borrow directly from the Fed, once gain by 50 bps. Cutting discount rates by 50 bps twice within one month is more effective to address inadequate liquidity, according to the Theory of Second Best in Economics. The Theory of Second Best says that it is optimal for the government to intervene directly in an economy with some market failure. This has been adopted by the Fed since this July: Lowering discount rate, pumping cash directly into financial markets and extending credit period.

 

In contrast, cutting benchmark rate is not the second-best policy. Hence, the word ‘forestall' in the statement caught market's attention. Although US market reacts positively to rate cuts, cautious investors try to figure out if a more-than expected rate cut implied the US economy might be worse than it appeared. A soft-landing scenario is worsening to a recession or even stagflation.

 

The US economy slowdown should have less impact on large-cap stocks than small or mid caps over the long term. Recent research estimates that nearly 45% of the S&P 500 Index's underlying revenue comes from outside the U.S. For example, Intel and General Electric generated around 79% and 46% revenues outside the U.S. respectively. Therefore US domestic slowing down should have mild impact on those big names. In consequence, large cap portfolios might outperform their smaller peers.

 

The US treasuries slumped on inflation worry as the Fed statement reinstated its inflation concern coupling with oil prices up over $80 per barrel. Low interest rate, high energy prices, and continuous liquidity injection by central banks together could push inflation up. The yields of 10-year and 30-year treasuries went up and the spread between two-year and long term ones were widened. On currency front, US dollar plummeted to record low against major currencies and gold prices soared to $730 per ounce. Inflation-linked or hedged portfolios are favorable now given long-run softening US dollar.

 

As prospects of US equities and treasuries are gloomy and softening US dollar depreciates US financial assets, investors turn their eyes to emerging countries like Asia. Economic research shows that European and Asian economies are becoming less dependent on US economy over recent years. Many believe that Asia's bull run should continue as global economic decoupling gathers pace. However, as liquidity dries up globally in the subprime shadow, Asian markets were hit this August despite of healthy fundamentals. The rate cuts by the Fed, on the other hand, may also help foster the risk of asset bubbles for regional markets as some countries' valuations are already quite stretched.

 

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最新回應

巧茹與小泡泡
巧茹與小泡泡 2013/03/24

以房地產來說,好多租約都帶有陷阱,最好還是著眼於周遭同類型物業的最近及歷史成交價,以作參考。

至於股票,我本人都係睇市盈率、市值規模、大股東等等。雖然歷史數據只能作參考而無保證,但總好過相信那些預測數字,預測數字更加是參考性質,更加無保證。

大家小心喇。

 

巧茹與小泡泡
巧茹與小泡泡 2013/03/22

十分抱歉,只是回來發文,未有餘空回覆。

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巧茹與小泡泡
巧茹與小泡泡 2009/06/17

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今天又是新的一天,我既研究工作都到了尾聲…

 

貼了出大廳,自己都留個 copy:

1、炒股是資源再分配,並不創造財富。

2、開辦股市就是為了賺錢,不給你一點甜頭你不會進來,更不用說掏錢。

3、中國股市沒有做空機制,往下做只不過是為了將來往上拉。

4、主力有遠大目標,顯得大智若愚。散戶有小聰明,卻是大愚若智。

5、人性有恐懼和貪婪,主力專找這兩死穴攻擊。散戶卻不承認自身有此毛病。

6、趨勢理論其實非常重要,其時我們大部分時間都在等待,下跌途中空倉等待,上漲途中滿倉等待,只有轉勢那一刻才動手買賣。均線可以幫我們判斷趨勢,但如果你不懂或不信它,誰也救不了你。

7、主力可以用日K線騙你,但它無法用月K線騙你,因為拆借資金玩不起時間,利息成本太高。

8、主力當然知道軟件的威力,所以它會在底部或頂部區間上下震蕩,使忠實反映情況的軟件發出前後矛盾的信號,你拋開軟件正中主力下懷。沒了K線圖就等於被廢去雙眼,你還想幹啥?等你悟出月K線的奧秘,你就會愛上軟件。

9、物極必反的原理非常適合炒股。如果你悟出它的真締,你就不會再幹出追高殺低的蠢事。至少你不會再衝動。KDJ/BOLLING都是很好的防衝動指標。

10、週密計劃是主力成功的關鍵所在。介入價位,密集成交區,籌碼分佈,指標高低,時間跨度,題裁配合,意外狀況,止損/止盈點……現在明白主力為什麼會賺你的錢了吧?

 

巧茹與小泡泡
巧茹與小泡泡 2009/06/17

自古以來,人類就好迷信。

唔係淨係中國人迷信,全世界都係,我都係。

邊鬼個咁「有心」啊,特登刪左幾十年前既留言,人地個風水局都攪,呵呵呵。

呢度個制度真係,唉。o的人都好咩姐。

日出日落何時有改變,向天仰望,大笑三聲至得了,哈哈哈。

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