美國加稅

陸sir, 1357仲可以按之前設定，愈跌愈買? 另外，我係5蚊時入左好大注2357。應在4蚊加注嗎？ ps 個倉4成現金，6成股票

早呀~ 各位~
上星期三已發出下跌訊號，希望幫到大家

缺水市炒股有難度
2018年06月19日

　　美國總統特朗普已成為全球最大不穩定因素。上周五白宮宣佈對500億美元中國貨品徵收懲罰性關稅，中國隨即反擊，深夜宣佈亦對500億美元的美國貨品分期實施懲罰性關稅。中國顯然有備而來，皆因深明特朗普反覆無常。

　　中國結束與美國第三輪貿易談判後，中方單方面發表聲明，最後一段是如果美國實行包括加徵關稅意義的貿易制裁措施，雙方此前達成的經貿協議成果，將不會生效。其後傳出中國願意大幅增加美國石油、天然氣、牛肉、大豆等產品進口，但聲明已埋下伏筆，顯示中國估計美國還是有可能對中國貨品開徵關稅。美國果然這樣做，等於將中美此前三輪貿易談判成果一筆勾銷。

　　談判成果 一筆勾銷

　　特朗普談判策略是要把對方推到懸崖邊，甚至推落懸崖，迫對方作出重大讓步。前提是假設特朗普最後還是想要達成協議。由於美國中期選舉在11月舉行，如果特朗普不想這麼快與中國，以至其他貿易夥伴達成協議，他大有可能繼續玩幾場貿易戰，到接近選舉時才決定繼續玩下去，還是達成和解協議，以博取更多選票。

　　回看特朗普與金正恩談判成果，這樣空洞的內容，特朗普也這樣興高采烈，說已達成協議，就知道有沒有協議，完全是特朗普個人意願，而不是雙方實際談出甚麼成果。所以，美國在與中國談判期間突然向中國加徵關稅，顯示特朗普現時不想與中國達成貿易協議。

　　加徵關稅生效後，固然會產生實際影響。但未來發展仍有兩個可能性，第一是雙方會進入全面貿易戰；第二是經過一輪風波，雙方最終達成協議，鳴金收兵。雖然，中美即使發生全面貿易戰，也未必如想像中可怕，因為中國可以加強與歐洲、非洲等其他貿易夥伴貿易，去填補部份對美貿易損失。但當中不確定性太多，對股市肯定會造成衝擊，這樣就會改變股市現時上落格局，港股可能會穿底向下。當然，貿易戰同樣會對美國有影響，美股也會扭轉上升形態，出現一個尋底狀況。

　　如果出現第二個可能性，港股就會繼續維持上落市格局，或許未來港股會調整得深一些，再次跌穿30000點水平，但去到29500至29800點，會有比較強勁支持，但如果今日港股開市只是微跌，小心還有下一波回落。

　　我估計未來中美爆大鑊機會是三七分，估計只有三成機會出現全面貿易戰，因為出現全面貿易戰前提，是特朗普認為開戰會對他的中期選舉，以至兩年後大選有利。但暫時我覺得情況不會這樣，因為中國以至歐洲、加拿大和墨西哥的反制裁措施，每一招都打在美國農業上，這些中西南部農業區，都是特朗普票倉。當他們產品出口量因為貿易戰大跌時，就會向特朗普施加壓力，這是我相信不會全面爆發貿易戰原因。

　　市場不信 全面開戰

　　美股杜指上周五一度跌超過200點，之後逐步收復失地，收市跌84點。有分析認為，美股跌得少是因為市場認為特朗普做得對，我的看法剛好相反，我認為美股跌得少，是投資者認為向中國制裁，只是特朗普花招，相信玩一兩個月就會玩完，所以不會對經濟以至上市公司盈利構成實質影響。否則杜指不會只跌84點，可能是500點樓上。

　　全球股市都比較冷靜，主要是對特朗普不信任，認為他反覆無常，當他做出對市場很大傷害時，市場反應也會打一定折扣，估計這些事情不會真正發生。特朗普是股市波動來源，但真正對香港及內地股市帶來壓力的，反而是市場缺水和將有大量高質科技股來港及內地上市影響。

　　上周末與股壇大孖沙吃飯，提到內地現時非常水緊，房地產發展商基本上借不到錢去買地，只能夠使橫手，叫建築商拿建築合約到銀行借錢，然後叫建築商帶資金來起樓。內地水緊已影響到香港，有股壇阿姐話，基本上內地調錢來香港炒股資金已經乾涸，香港炒股借錢息口因而抽高。股市出現水緊情況，內地來香港炒股資金已大幅減少。

　　股市水緊，不少中型紅色股，最近無特別原因都跌得很厲害，美圖(1357) 上周五跌到七個一皮，收7.18元，去到一年低位。雖然公司回購股份，高層亦增持，仍止不住跌勢。

　　大市缺水，卻遇上大量優質新股上市，現有股份自然受壓。未來除了小米將會上市，其他大股也陸續有來，大家心態都在等食「好嘢」。見到有何風吹草動，一見股票下跌，「執輸行頭，慘過敗家」，就搶先把手上股票斬倉，加上市場水緊接貨人少，便造成目前紅色股跌勢。我認為如果持有這類股份，見到股價大插，短炒惟有按價位止蝕，長揸就集中持有基本因素較佳、在行業地位較突出股份，預備長期作戰。

　　大家都等 阿爺放水

　　內地A股情況差不多，上周五上證綜指跌至3021點低水平，迫近3000點。市場水緊源於金融業去槓桿化，打擊影子銀行。過往阿爺見股市跌得這樣低，都會在市場上放水，讓資金環境比較寬鬆，頂住股市。

　　內地新股吸水情況比香港更誇張，大量優質巨股如百度、阿里巴巴、騰訊等，正排隊回內地上CDR(中國預託證券)。中國證監正在研究如何讓CDR不至於炒得過熱。中國股市要擴容和吸收優質科技股回歸，本身有其戰略意義，特別是中美貿易關係變得很差，在美國上市的中國科技巨頭很擔心會被美國打壓，回歸A股至少多條後路，因此蜂擁爭取回國上市機會。市場短期內突然增加大量優質股份，加上水緊得很，自然造成很大換馬壓力。

　　我覺得阿爺未來仍要做放水動作，因為不做的話，A股有機會跌穿3000點，甚至下插至2800點可能，特別是在中美貿易戰如火如荼，美國對中國加徵價值500億美元貨品關稅，中國股市若破位向下，在貿易談判上就更顯弱勢，因為貿易一旦遭到打壓，股市便「散晒」，人民感到很痛的話，哪裏還有談判籌碼呢？

　　中航科工 水乾受累

　　假如我是阿爺的話，我一定放水力挺股市，以免露出虛位被人狙擊。故此，大家不用太擔心股市會大幅向下。不過，在這樣的環境下，要小心那些非指數股，特別是中型紅色股，還有可能會再向下。

　　中航科工(2357) 上周五大跌7.3%至4.43元，這是我相當喜愛的股份，相信未來會成為中國軍工股重要上市平台。但短炒就寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌，隨時還會下試更低水平。如果你炒短線的話，我一定叫你止蝕。不過，由於中航科工質素很好，作為長線投資的話，反而希望股價可以跌得再深一些，跌穿四元水平就可以吸納。相信持貨三年或以上，會有不錯回報。長線和短線看法可以完全不同，做長線投資，關鍵是看一隻股票的長遠前景。

　　陸羽仁

2018-06-18

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) 

24,987.47 -103.01 (-0.41%)

<小貓溫馨提示>牛可能要回頭了, 要有跌穿250天線的準備

上周說了"新升浪之前, 很可能會出現跌穿之前的牛二底部。" 這個底部, 現在已很接近250天線的位置(29237)了,

部份籃籌, 例如中行3988, 工行1398在7月初的除淨後, 若按現時價格, 是肯定會跌穿250天線的。

到時會觸發一大批以250天作牛熊分界線止蝕或食糊的長線操作。這反而是錯過年初升市的長線投資者的低吸機會, 但就必須要有捱價的心理素質。

因為, 過去很多次大牛市的最後升市前, 會有一次"50天跌穿250天線"的情況, 若然是這樣, 這次跌穿250天線, 不會立刻在一個月內升返上去, 甚至會較大幅度地跌得更深, 以製造絕望氣氛和止蝕盤。

但若是長線持有3988這種5厘息的內銀, 基本上股息可以完全COVER同等價值按竭的本+息供款。 大家不想承擔風險, 就放著也無妨, 笑看風雨。

--

上周初所謂焦點"特金會"後, 市場仍然是按著既定規律走勢過作下去, 再一次證明外在因素最多也只是催化劑而已, 股市的運作自有其規律, 不用太在意分析員的聲音。

--

上周短線內銀若按建議10天線止蝕, 應該已獲利觀望了,

現在除非重上10天線, 否則勿買入, 可等939,1398,3988除淨後才買入

陸sir，有事想請教。我現在三十多歲，過往買股票都是輸多贏少，現在想改為月供股票，希望可以長線儲錢，暫時打算月供4000-5000元，除了2800仲有咩可以推介?因為你經常講果隻405，不在中銀的月供名單上。先謝謝幫忙!!

0

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肚餓男便利店偷麵包　藝人黃建東幫手捉賊

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有食物銀行...

有麥當勞二手飯...

使鬼偷麵包...

SIGH...

《大行報告》大摩視H股全流通試點為中航科工(02357.HK)正面催化劑 2018/05/10 16:10

《大行報告》大摩相信中航科工(02357.HK)股價45日內將升 評級「增持」 2018/05/08 16:17

股平樓貴難永續(大結局)
2018年xx月xx日 (xx:xx AM)
 

陸羽仁

邊個玩野??? 

well said

袋鼠，you have a good weekend, too!  

2018-06-15

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) 

25,090.48 -84.83 (-0.34%)

咁L差嘅財演都有嘅...

SIGH...

股平樓貴難永續(大結局)
2018年xx月xx日 (xx:xx AM)
 

陸羽仁
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
金融High Tea——
股平樓貴難永續（下集）
2012-07-16
     
上周五是「黑色星期五」，但股市並不黑色，內地公佈第二季經濟增長只有7.6％，市場相當冷靜，內地上證綜指微微升鰦一點都唔夠，等如無上落，收2185點。港股亦撐住19000點大關，收19092點，升67點。

        不過呢個黑色星期五去到美國仲精采，早前摩根大通深受「倫敦鯨」交易員投資失利影響，但上周五佢公佈上季業績較市場預期佳，股價勁升6％，帶動整片美國金融股抽上，再加上歐美投資者認為中國7.6％經濟增長，不是硬覑陸，杜指爆升203點，大升1.6％，終止連跌六日的頹勢，港股應有反彈，特別係跌得好殘的內銀股，應有像樣一點的反彈。

        大戶操控詮釋權

        股市就係咁，上上落落，壞消息面世時，又話「好過預期」、「其實唔係咁壞鎹」，股市升彈。股壇老雀極短炒時鍾意炒相反，認為如何詮釋市場資訊的權利在大戶手上，佢地鍾意同散戶做對手，所以要極短期炒作，只能在市場評價好差時買，在評價好好時賣。

        上星期寫了篇文「股平樓貴難永續」，講起網友「硬道理」在09年中因錯判市況，將05年入市的自住樓賣掉，然後將所有資金分段投放在A50（2823）       及工行（1398）       上，如今樓價升了，投資的股票跌了兩成多。文章見報後，迴響不少，有不少甚為專業的老友都有評價，可以寫寫他們的寶貴意見畀大家參考。

        第一，順大潮流炒作。有一個擅作價值投資的老手，睇完「硬道理」棄樓買股的手法，有此感歎，「買股票要年年有表現，其實近乎炒作，不是投資，炒作要順勢，唔講你個網友『硬道理』把自住樓賣掉，要冒上替代使用成本高升的風險（租金上升），單就炒作而言，佢鱓做法都是逆勢施為。」

        投資老手話，股神巴菲特咁成功，除鰦佢善睇公司價值，低價入市之外，佢都有「順勢投資」的味道，才不止長線有表現，而且中短期都有表現。例如佢在2002年、2003年以2元多的低價大手買入中石油（857）       ，除了因為中石油股價低迷外，還睇到2002年911事件後，美國大幅降息，美元將持續走弱，石油等商品價格將長線走強的大趨勢，當時美國石油股唔便宜，就買纒中國石油股，結果食正油價連年大升的潮流，多年後就在10元以上沽出中石油獲利。

        股神都要順勢買

        又例如巴菲特在2011年1月以440億美元收購美國第二大鐵路營運商伯林頓鐵路公司（BNSF）。巴菲特雖然聲稱這次收購是對美國經濟前景的一次豪賭，但如果真係咁睇好美國經濟前景，點解係買鐵路公司而唔係買銀行？巴菲特係睇住美國正發生可能長達10年的非槓桿化過程，靠借貸賺錢的銀行唔係咁掂，投資進入低回報年代，加上油價高企，所以就買入鐵路這種回報較穩定的傳統公用事業，這種行為和李超人去英國買電廠、水廠有異曲同工之妙。當然，巴菲特偶有睇錯大潮流出事的投資，例如油價高睇好電動車，過份放大呢個行業的發展，入股比亞迪（1211）       ，結果概念掂生意唔掂，股神勝在以8元入股比亞迪作價夠平，所以佢未死只是跟風者死晒。

        投資老手話「硬道理」在09年買入工行和A50基金長獱，事後睇係逆勢投資，因為阿爺在08年驚得滯大力投放4萬億救市，令股市和樓市當年升得太勁，再加上基建泡沫，觸發巨大通脹，2010年開始要收水救亡，這種收水潮，對投資內銀的氣氛不利，「硬道理」投資失利，係睇唔飱呢個收水大勢。反而好多人中短線炒纒內銀，跌得多買鱓，升一兩成走人，仲搵到食。

        第二，買樓有利長獱。我有另一個老友是極資深投資銀行前輩，佢20年前係巨型銀行的投資銀行部獱fit人，一直鍾情股票長線投資，唔喜歡買樓，當然佢亦有兩三間樓畀自己和屋企人自用，但他和香港人大多數發達方式不同，主要投資放在股票之上，而且係20、30年咁長獱。

        這位投行前輩舉鰦個例，佢話當年佢在包銷上市的公司中，揀鱓好鱓公司，用好少錢例如一、兩萬去買它們的股票（呢鱓錢在他而言只是零錢），買鰦十家八家公司股票，夾埋只是用鰦十幾萬，到而家無計歷年收的利息都值400幾萬，當中仲扣埋有一家公司執鰦笠股票變廢紙。佢話我可能唔覺得400幾萬係乜№錢，但佢只想試纒證明，長獱優質股票，獱得夠長有好回報。

        散戶買股難長獱

        當然，佢當年係投行大佬，睇住呢鱓公司上市，知道晒佢地盤數真假，佢長獱的股票有質素。佢承認呢個係事實，普通股民唔識揀，好多時會揀鰦鱓垃圾股，佢以內銀為例，雖然好多人怕內銀有壞帳黑洞，佢就唔係咁驚。呢個前投行大佬係中國好友，話中國第二季經濟仲有7.6％增長，仲話已經見鰦底，咁有乜№大問題，你睇纒歐美日的經濟有幾多增長？點解覺得美國好似安全過中國？美國最好的年代也只月3點幾巴仙增長，美國今年第1季增長只有1.9％，有幾好？所以拉長十年睇，佢唔覺得股票投資有乜問題，但你要日日問股價，日日去比較，咁就大問題囉，心理好易不平衡。

        前投行大佬話，一般人買樓好過買股，除了因為買樓有槓桿外，還因為買樓焗你長獱，但買股好易出出入入，但完全唔贊成投資者買股「游水」（將長線投資的股份高位沽出低位獱番），因為覺得大部份股民沒有合適的心理質素，所謂高沽，可能升少少沽鰦，結果只有輸錢股會長獱，賺錢股一早就沽走。內銀現價息率4厘、5厘，點解唔可以長獱？佢認為若有心理質素長獱，買樓買股都得，只要選擇低位入市獱佢十年廿年就得啦。

        第三，最怕係樓價追股價。聽完呢兩個朋友的意見，雖然好似一個話內銀唔得，一個話內銀得，其實只是中短線和長線的分別，內銀價殘，卻是大家都同意的事實。

        有一個靚女朋友上周問我，好買唔好買一個西半山樓盤投資，16000元一呎，佢想買一個500呎細單位租畀人，話利息咁平，隨時供平過租，有租金淨收入。我計一計，500呎單位盛惠800萬大元，呢鱓單幢樓實用率好低，500呎樓有300幾呎都偷笑，呎價真係貴得好緊要。但我見靚女貌美如花，好怕叫佢唔買一年後升到20000元一呎佢鈬找我晦氣，只能咁同佢講，樓價咁貴，但利息續低，升3成變20800元一呎當然有可能，但跌4成變9600元一呎也有機會，好似跌的機會大過升少少，就算升鰦上20000元一呎，兩年內賣要畀特別印花稅，利潤無鰦一大截，叫三思才好後行。

        靚女又問睇完我話「股平樓貴」，係唔係股價會大升？我見靚女一面「炒相」，好似唔炒樓想炒股咁，就提佢小心係「樓價追股價喎」，在這種百年不遇的金融海嘯中，投資唔好太冒進啦。

        陸羽仁
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

金融High Tea——股平樓貴難永續
     
2012-07-09

       中國減息沒有為上周五的市況帶來太多刺激，主要因為外圍唔好，內地股市上周五早段一度唔升仲要跌，搞到港股早段都要插，尚幸上證綜指當日午後都炒番上去，最後升1%收場，造2223點，港股都算收復失地，恒指只微跌8點。不過美股上周五又因為新增職位不理想，杜指跌124點，港股今日都要捱一捱。

      股市唔好景，炒股的人愈來愈少，傳統智慧話無人買才是投資股市最佳時機，不過在歐美大崩圍兼大放水時代，傳統智慧係唔係咁啱用，都令人存疑。股票買唔買都得，但買樓有實際使用需要，就必須處理，令人有好大煩惱。網友「硬道理」早前在頭條網留言提問，我覺得問題有普遍性，所以不妨引述一吓。

      網友「硬道理」咁講：「自問是紀律良好但不善投機的長線投資者，在09年中因錯判市況，將05年入市的自住樓賣掉，然後定下長遠投資目標，當時看好中國的長遠投資前景，將所有資金分段投放在A50（2823）      及工行（1398）      的股票之上，期間看着樓價不斷上升，雖然十分痛苦及無奈，但依然嚴守紀律，分段吸納，但3年過後，租金已將賣樓的利潤耗盡，自己的投資卻原地踏步，後期更是反覆向下調整，其中持貨較高的A50已比我入貨的平均價下跌28%，工行也下跌了22%，在後期將買貨目標轉至民行（1988）      及中銀香港（2388）      才止血，但倉位已滿，分配大概為A50 50%，工行30%，民行10%，中銀香港10%，由於A50及工行佔去總投資額的80%，令總投資虧損嚴重，本來看錯市受教訓是應該的，唯有處變不驚，靜待市況逆轉……工行、民行及中銀香港的投資，暫時偏向以不變應萬變，除非歐盟真的出現架構溶解的危機才考慮減持，這策略在這時勢還可取嗎？」

      沽樓買股受重創

      「硬道理」又問：「尤幸內子沒有給予太大壓力，亦從未有因為經濟緊逼而爭辯，但總會有片言隻語流露出對自置物業的渴求，但現在似乎在2014年利息回升之前，也看不到有再上車的時機，要說置業的好時機，可能還要再等2016年，因樓市縱然下調，開始時也會比較反覆，大量的剛性需求，會促使樓市在下跌初期不斷有小幅反彈，直至積壓已久的購買力完全釋放後，樓價便會正式受到考驗，陸老師同意這觀點嗎？」

      他又說：「由於對自己的長期投資策略開始抱有懷疑，我在銀行跟我推銷3個月超低息借貸時，借了一些額外資本，總利息成本為0.3%，我以這些額外資本嘗試以5%止蝕及高位回5%止賺的硬道理進行短炒操作，最低目標是保本，幸運地由於市況好轉，暫時的成果比預期更成功，由於要控制風險的關係，所以不打算加大短炒的資金，但的確對自己的投資紀律挽回不少信心。」

      「硬道理」的提問很長，佔了不少篇幅，希望《頭條日報》老總不要以為我在騙稿費，我覺得「硬道理」講了不少等買樓的市民的心聲，所以不妨長篇引述，我以點列回應。

      第一，賣自住樓要小心。我一直在講，如果是投資的樓，覺得樓價好高，賣咗出街，即使樓價再升，也只是賺少了，只要平常心對待即可，但賣自住樓要小心好多，這是一個百年不遇的金融海嘯，各國中央銀行也以百年不遇的手法去應對問題，結果難料。聯儲局主席伯南克的博士論文，就係議論美國1929年的大蕭條，主要觀點是若當時央行大力放鬆銀根，就不會蕭條10年咁長。伯南克如今正試驗他的理論，係唔係咁簡單放啲水就得，無人知，正因為咁，美國的利息政策係點，亦好難估。利息影響樓市，所以樓市的中短期後向無人摸得準，人人都知到加息時香港樓市好可能唔掂，但到底幾時加息呢？

      若伯南克成功救番美國經濟，可能在2014年，甚至更早就加息，樓市壓力就來。萬一相反救極都唔掂，而且再步向衰退，美國有通縮而唔係通脹問題時，只能令利息超乎想像長期低企，咁樓價又唔係咁易碌番落去。賣咗自住樓要長期租樓，好似「硬道理」老婆咁唔嘈已經好好，若一方賣樓，另一方老婆老公唔同意，鬧得一兩年，離婚都有可能，最悲哀係離咗婚樓市先至跌，證明當初賣樓的決定係啱，但一切都太遲，所以賣自住樓，除了睇市之外，還有一個感情因素要考慮。

      第二，做咗不要後悔。好似「硬道理」咁，睇落有清晰思路，有自己邏輯，就不要動搖。他的理論是樓貴股平，所以賣樓買股，而家睇落唔啱，因為樓升股唔升，佢有少少動搖，仲借錢炒股，我建議佢唔好借錢炒股，因為咁樣就開始偏離長線投資的基本策略，好易一錯再錯。堅持買股長線投資，可能5年後發現係啱。

      長揸平貨是正道

      第三，股樓背馳難永續。由於央行的行為「反常」，長期低息，大量放水，谷高通脹，推升實物資產，令房產和商品等供應好難短期增加的實物資產大幅炒起，但供應相對彈性的股市炒唔郁，結果出現內地十年股市原地踏步，樓價升咗10倍的畸型現象，雖然內地早幾年因為股改將原本不能買賣的公司大股東持股投入市場，令股票供應大增，但兩者背馳成咁，都有股票太便宜、樓價太貴之歎，恐怕差距會慢慢修正。貴嘢會跌，睇商品已睇到，反映商品價格的商品研究局指數（CRB CCI Index）去年4月上到691的高位，現已大幅回落至545，技術上跌20%已入熊市，佢已從高位跌21%，熊味不輕，再大幅下滑就確認大趨勢。CRB指數在2002年美元大跌之前，長期只是在200至250中間浮沉，未來若全球經濟再走弱，對商品需求再減，商品價格下行空間極大，其他貴價資產亦然，內地房產價格已回吐，香港樓價又能否長升不跌？當然，我講的是長線走勢，短期一年半載內樓價唔回甚至再升都唔出奇，對無樓者仍然係好大煎熬。

      第四，長揸收息唔失禮。我自己愛做長線投資者，本來好唔鍾意將長揸的股票出出入入，認為散戶點解買樓易搵大錢，買股無乜進帳，皆因持股坐唔定，升少少就走，所以一直建議「投資的我」買股要長揸。有人話而家啲股票係「呢世唔會再見到咁平」，所以你忍得住長揸，或許可以發達。不過好似「硬道理」咁，長揸A50基金和工行，而家仲要輸20、30%，心理上的確好惡頂，本來長揸A50基金有1.7厘息，好過放銀行，揸工行有5.8厘息，簡直吸引，唔睇股價就得，我的建議係揸落去，唔好低價出貨。若真係頂唔順，又估大市可能都係波動上落，可以等大市從低位升3000點時沽部份股票（只沽部份，不要清倉），博佢回吐跌番2000點時揸番，也是降低成本的方法，但要好有紀律去做，唔好太受市場影響，唔係沽咗唔去買番，就變成低位出貨，這種「游水」動作，要有定力才好做。

      最後總結，一般人覺得買樓容易炒股難，主要係揸股票無定力，買樓迫住你長揸而已。長線投資一定要買平貨，才是正道，如今樓貴股平，要長線投資，選擇清楚不過。

      陸羽仁

中原城市領先指數 CCL

---

日期 Date	中原城市領先指數 CCL (所有成份屋苑)
2018/06/04 - 2018/06/10	182.64
2018/05/28 - 2018/06/03	181.60

2018...

SIGH...

無錯呀，係財經報紙請政府中學數學教師食飯。另外，如果有睇開金融時報，應該知道文中提及嘅專欄作家Lucy Kellaway.

香港應該都有好教師嘅，希望佢哋唔好俾供層樓或者政治嘅壓力，阻住佢哋用心去為人師表。

Jun 15 2018 at 11:30 AM | Updated Jun 15 2018 at 11:30 AM

Why maths teacher Eddie Woo won't monetise his YouTube channel

Over sushi and chicken katsu at a suburban shopping mall, Australia's favourite maths teacher Eddie Woo shares why so many people choose teaching, why financial literacy is lagging and how to calculate percentages.

by Misa Han

"I haven't been to Cherrybrook in 10 years," the taxi driver says. We're on our way to the suburb in Sydney's north-west, which, although it's only a half-hour drive from the city, could be a foreign country. It's all free-standing houses with lawns, shops unknown in my inner-city suburb (Poolwerx for one) and churches with bilingual posters. It's also home to Cherrybrook Technology High School, where maths teacher Eddie Woo works.

Woo is Australia's favourite maths teacher. In media circles he's known as "Australia's most fabulous maths teacher", "maths rockstar" and "the Kim Kardashian of maths teaching". He has more than 300,000 subscribers on his "WooTube" YouTube channel, where he posts videos of his maths lessons daily.

The place we're dining is also a world away from AFR Weekend's usual corporate haunts of Rockpool, Cafe Sydney and The Bridge Room. Woo has chosen Haru Healthy Sushi in Cherrybrook Village Shopping Centre: a tiny corner shop next to Woolworths. It's the kind of place that is inevitably run by Korean migrants where you pick sushi from a display cabinet. Woo has been here before, with his "sushi spouse", the school's co-head of mathematics. He goes for a mix of individual pieces – grilled scallops, fried prawns and vegie tempura – while I settle for the chicken katsu meal.

Alcohol is a social minefield at Lunch with The AFR, where etiquette and lifestyle choices are on full display for every reader to judge. A glass of wine or sparkling water? Is chardonnay still in fashion? Can you order not one, but two cocktails at lunch?

But Woo has a class to teach at 2pm and the place doesn't serve alcohol. I pick up a $2 bottle of water from the drinks fridge.

'I know exactly who I'm serving'

After 10 minutes the photographer and my food arrive, so Woo can get started on his plate of sushi, which he hasn't touched.

Woo is a child of Malaysian-Chinese migrants. English is his first language and he speaks only basic Cantonese. His brother and sister went to Chinese language schools but by the time Woo, child No. 3, rolled around, his parents gave up on the idea.

"At an early point they decided, 'You know what, we're just going to bank on English'. They were judged because of their accent and they didn't want that to be an obstacle to us growing up."

I ask him why he – and other people from all walks of life – choose teaching as a profession. Woo was a student at James Ruse Agricultural High School, the state's top selective school, and was the only person in his year to become a teacher (to his father's horror).

I'm fascinated by the likes of Lucy Kellaway, a former Financial Times columnist who quit her job to become a maths teacher at the age of 57, only to be told by a bratty 11-year-old, "Everyone hates you, miss."

Woo can't speak for the people who become teachers mid-career – for the 32-year-old, it's his first and only job out of university – but he says he identifies with their reason for joining the profession: to serve the community they live in.

"Every profession exists to serve a community but some professions do that in a more abstract way and sometimes it's many, many steps removed from the actual people benefiting from it," he says.

"One of the most amazing things about teaching is that I know exactly who I'm serving. They're right in front of me.''

He does know people who have switched and he recounts the story of a colleague who became a teacher because she became disillusioned with her job in finance.

'It didn't mean anything to me'

"The way she described it was, 'I would move millions of dollars over the course of one day at work and it was just numbers on a spreadsheet. I knew it was connected to some company, which was connected to some people in some community somewhere, but it didn't mean anything to me.'

"With teaching, give me an hour with some students and I will make them something different when they walk out, from when they walked in," he says.

"And if you give me a year, you give me six years, I can change somebody in a way that's positive and lasting, and that's a huge privilege for me."

I briefly think about following the paths of Woo and Kellaway and becoming a teacher, which is unambiguously meaningful and real, in a way most jobs are not. Then, I remind myself, all the rules and set times for breaks would drive me nuts. Plus I didn't even like high school that much when I was a student.

Woo was named NSW's Local Hero last year and Australia's Local Hero on Australia Day in January for his work as a teacher, which came as a complete surprise to him.

"The work of teachers is very everyday work," he says. "That doesn't make it less important but it's not exceptional, it's something that happens all around us, all the time."

WooTube v Candy Crush

It's a bit noisy in the sushi shop, so we move the party to Oliver Brown, a chain cafe in the mall, where he runs into a former student. He walks over to talk to her while I order a white hot chocolate for him ("What about all the sugar?" I want to scream) and a cappuccino, without the chocolate, for me.

I ask about WooTube, where he posts videos of his maths lessons every day.

"I never had any grand plans with my YouTube channel," he says. "It didn't come with my five-year plan, my strategy for engagement." He started recording his lessons on his phone and uploaded them to YouTube for a student with cancer who was missing weeks and weeks of lessons. The channel has now has more than 16 million views.

Woo has no plans to monetise his videos, despite their popularity.

"I have a salary. I have a job. It would be a real step backwards for me to say, 'I'm just going to do videos full-time'," he says.

"If a 14-year-old boy or girl wants to spend their precious time on their phone watching a video about learning maths rather than playing Candy Crush or Fortnite or whatever it is, you know what? The last thing I want to do is put a pre-roll ad in front of you," he says.

"I believe in public education, I want people to be able to access what I'm doing without charge."

Numeracy is for everyone

I probe him about his appearance at TEDxSydney on June 15, where he will talk about how literacy has evolved to become something that is expected of everyone, but numeracy has not.

"We say 'Yeah! That's for special people. If you're an engineer, an actuary, a statistician, sure, you study mathematics. The rest of us, why would you bother?' But I think that's a fallacy," he says. "In the same way that literacy is for everyone, I think numeracy is for everyone.

"I came to mathematics quite late in life. When I was at school, humanities were all of my favourite subjects, the subjects I was naturally good at."

What about his own children? Do his nine-year-old daughter and seven and four-year-old sons do calculus for fun?

"They are natural readers," he says. "I think a lot of people are surprised by that because they think of me as a mathematics person."

He tries to get his children interested in the subject by introducing mathematics in everyday life. Like when they kick a soccer ball, he will point out the shape of a parabola that the ball makes. "Which is a mathematical shape we all studied in high school," he says. (I have to Google what he means when I get back into the office.)

Financial literacy a problem

I shift the questioning a little and ask him about a related topic: financial literacy. With the banking royal commission highlighting the financial vulnerabilities of consumers, is the lack of emphasis on numeracy partly to blame for our lack of savvy with money?

"Even as someone who now would describe myself as quite a mathematical person, I remember thinking when I was a younger adult dealing with money, 'I don't know how any of this stuff works. I don't know how credit cards work. How mortgages work. What is negative gearing?' It's a whole world out there of mathematical realities that most people don't understand.

"There's a reason why we pay financial advisers and accountants. It's because we can't do that job ourselves for the most part so we're willing to pay somebody else to do it for us."

Take percentages, for example. People get really confused, he says, when he asks people to add a 10 per cent GST to an item and then apply a 10 per cent discount.

"It's the same," I say with the authority of a financial journalist and as the daughter of a maths teacher.

"It's not the same." (Quick maths lesson from Woo: If you have something priced at $100, 10 per cent GST that adds $10 but if you get a 10 per cent discount on that item (including 10 per cent GST), the 10 per cent you take off is $11.)

So does Woo do his own tax returns? "My wife is an accountant so she outclasses me in that area," he says.

'We're just going to bank on English'

Finally, I ask him about tutoring. Is tutoring good? Is tutoring bad? Should we ban tutoring? He confesses he's been approached by a number of tutoring companies, presumably offering a larger pay packet. He reckons some tutors are great partners with the education system; others are straight out damaging.

"One of the most common things that dismays me is when students memorise formulas that they know they're going to learn in a couple of years' time and they have no understanding of where it comes from, why it matters, what happens when the situation changes a little bit," he says.

"You have no fundamental understanding of what's going on. You're like a machine.

"So that for me is actually more damaging than not learning anything at all, so that really upsets me whenever I hear it."

It's 1.30pm and he has to go. He has a roomful of students to teach.

The bill

Haru Healthy Sushi

Shop 18, Cherrybrook Village Shopping Centre, Sydney

1 chicken katsu meal, $14

4x grilled scallop sushi, $8

2x prawn noodle sushi, $4

1 vegie tempura sushi, $2

1 bottled water, $2

Total including GST: $29.50

Oliver Brown

Shop P2A, Cherrybrook Village Shopping Centre, Sydney

1 white hot chocolate, $5.80

1 cappuccino, $3.80

Total including GST: $9.60

https://www.afr.com/leadership/careers/why-maths-teacher-eddie-woo-wont-monetise-his-youtube-channel-20180528-h10m8k

Kathleen have a good weekend

confidence兄，have a good weekend anyway

終結者，that's classic, mate! 一早找到自己輸錢的方法了!

會唔會有啲股票都都有special places in hell？

另外，以下一段係講緊股票投機，定係將軍溝美少女心路歷程？

想問陸SIR, 2357今日大跌,收市$4.43, 對比推介價位$5.15, 大跌左16.25%, 應該持有定係止蝕?

如無貨者, 今早跟你建議係開市$4.82低吸左, 現價$4.43, 即日蝕8%, 又應該持有, 定止蝕呢?

謝謝, 期待回覆

利申: 我無貨, 純學術研究

真的假不了  跌的升不了......

thx~

得閒多啲來我FB，一齊研究下

一早找到自己輸錢的方法了!  ..... 救我  

TC主席: 其實我有參考你既投機手法, 好得!

皮兄：你終於找到自己的方法了，恭喜恭喜~

3339 高高高

昨日先講完, 今日陸SIR話2357唔洗止蝕, 仲反而可再低吸.......

結果今日又跌多4.5%, 跌到$4.57, 對比建議買入價$5.15, 損失已超過10%了

真係祝大家好運啦!!!

又令我諗起當年盲目既我, 買3800真係信佢, 無止蝕, 仲有低吸, 結果輸左50%,輸左100多萬, 係$0.9怒斬3800, 從那日開始我唔再相信此人, 要信自己, 2年過去, 我低吸700, 3968, 3988, 終於可以打和了, 或者係我好彩翻到身吧!

我已不再是當年那個Loss_confidence, 因為對自己沒有信心, 跟本是玩不了股的

希望大家俾D信心自己, 自己冷靜分析, 最緊要識止蝕, 同埋買大股, 唔好買細股, 呢幾樣真係好重要的

上落市大雞食細米

2018年06月15日 (08:48 上午)

早呀~ 各位~

有空的給個[讚]，有興趣的可[追蹤]一下，感恩~

https://www.facebook.com/HKProgramTrading/

!