疑心深重 市場在愁緒中爬升 -- 何偉傑

資金流向左右大市。股權投資和債權投資每一個交易日都得展開拉鋸戰，就像選美的小姐在評判面前比美，各自拿着預期的回報希望吸引市場上的投資者。

Peter Bernstein： If the long-run expected return on bonds in the future were higher than the expected return on equities, the capitalist system would grind to a half, because the reward system would be completely out of whack with the risks involved.

After all, from the end of 1949 to the end of 2000 （including the bull markets of the 1990's）, the S&P 500 provided a total annual return of 13.1 percent, while long Treasuries could grind out only 5.8 percent a year.

照財經理論老行家彼得伯恩斯坦（Peter Bernstein）看來，資本主義市場制度繼續興旺延展的前提，必然是股權投資的長線回報要比債權投資優勝，因為這種比試的方程式必定得給予不同層次的風險以恰當的考慮，並相應予以確認與補償。

經過長期反覆陰沉熊市的陣痛，不少已退休、半退休、快要退休的投資者現在恐須到處尋找新的日常開支來源，長期經營穩健又肯不時增加股息的普通股於是重新成為這種投資者的出路，使這類普通股重新得到發掘，甚至特別受到寵愛。

每日美語知新—— One of the interesting things behind bull markets historically is that they are not greeted with cheers, they are actually greeted by people who do not believe the bull market should ccur. … Normally in a cyclical rebound, it is the poor-quality assets that outperform, you want to stick to higher-quality assets, they may not work in the next two or three quarters but will in the next two or three years. （Richard Bernstein）

向來牛市有趣的特點之一是，沒有人因它來到而歡呼，迎接牛市的倒是些不期待它會出現的人。……正常的情況下素質差的證券於市場短期反彈之中表現反而比較出色，但這種時刻你要緊守優質，優質證券未必再過兩個季度就有表現，但未來兩年必將回報良好。

才了蠶桑又插田．之一○八