陸羽仁
陸羽仁
陸羽仁

外強中乾的經濟

2017/12/14 08:17:34 網誌分類: 經濟
14 Dec

美國一如所料又再加息,週三美股未受影響,不同指數個別發展,杜指升80點至點,再創歷史新高,標普微跌1點離場,聯儲局聲明內容傾向鴿派,令銀行股受壓。

聯儲局今年最後一次的貨幣政策會議昨日結束,一如所料,宣佈提高聯邦基準利率0.25厘至1.25-1.5厘。

聯儲局公開市場委員會在會後的議息聲明中表示,美國勞動市場「將會維持強勁」,較對上一次會議話「將會比較強」,顯得更有信心,亦把美國明年GDP增長率由9月時預期的2.1%上調至2.5%

聯儲局會在今次會議決定加息,市場已預咗。經濟數據良好,早前公布的11月非農就業報告等經濟數據靚仔,昨日公佈的美國11月生產者物價(PPI)增長與前三個月一樣,維持按月升0.4%,高過市場預期的0.3%,按年計較去年急升3.1%,高過市場預期的2.9%10月時的2.8%增幅,更係20121月以來的最大增幅。數據良好聯儲局加息好正常,雖然聯儲局今次仍然傾向鴿派,但市場關注聯儲局主席鮑維爾明年初新官上任,聯儲局的態度會否由「鴿」轉「鷹」,會否加快加息步伐,此前已有分析說聯儲局明年可能加息四次,較此前預期的多了一次。

不過,聯儲局已經預告明年只會按計劃加息三次。事實上,睇聯儲局公佈對美國未來幾年的通脹及GDP增長速度,對美國經濟的底子似乎不是很樂觀,認為美國經濟好景不長,聯儲局預期2019年的GDP增長會回落至2.1%2019年再跌1個百份點至2%。至於通脹率,當局上調今年的通脹率0.1個百份點至1.7%,對明年以後的通脹預期則維持不變,2018年的通脹率為1.9%2019年及2020年為2%,打後都是2%。預期經濟唔係幾得,通脹亦唔會有明顯好轉啦。

至於明年經濟點解會好轉,其實聯儲局主席耶倫講過,在此前的幾次演說中,耶倫都對特朗普推出的積極財政政策,會對經濟有幫助方面,表示樂觀,只係程度未及特朗普等共和黨人而已,他們說減稅將推動美國GDP增長至3%以上。

此前有分析已經指出,深入研究美國的就業報告之後,覺得美國經濟數據,特別是非農就業報告,有點外強中乾。分析指出美國勞動市場正出現一個怪現象,失業率與資薪出現背馳,美國11月失業率為4.1%,係17年的新低,可以說已經到達全民就業的水平,而11月平均時薪年增長率雖然較前幾個月反彈,但也只有2.5%,低過市場預期的2.7%,即反彈幅度也不夠。至於非農職位增長22.8萬個,好過市場預期的20萬,但相對於10月的24.4萬,其實已見衰退。值得注意的是,睇美國薪資走勢,走勢都有一個頗長的波段,例如對上一個跌浪由2008年中的年增長3.5%,一直跌至2012年下半段的1.5%才反彈,之後緩慢上升至2017910月又開始回落,恐怕資薪增長將會出現一段長時間向下走。

另外,美國戰後嬰兒潮人口開始進入退休期,美國的勞動人口逐漸減少,現時的參與率已經跌至62.7%,創出新低。勞動參與率偏低,工資又無增長,扣除通脹,打工仔其實無人工加,整體的消費能力自然大受影響。美國GDP7成來自零售消費,GDP增長自然就不樂觀啦。在減稅和明年可能推出大量基建的推動下,聯儲局提高明年經濟預期,之後又顯得比較悲觀,就好易理解啦。

無論如何,聯儲局明年可能再加息3次,港美息差勢將進一步拉濶,香港明年加息,應無懸念了。

 

陸羽仁

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