陸羽仁
陸羽仁
陸羽仁

外強中乾的經濟

2017/12/14 08:17:34 網誌分類: 經濟
14 Dec

美國一如所料又再加息,週三美股未受影響,不同指數個別發展,杜指升80點至點,再創歷史新高,標普微跌1點離場,聯儲局聲明內容傾向鴿派,令銀行股受壓。

聯儲局今年最後一次的貨幣政策會議昨日結束,一如所料,宣佈提高聯邦基準利率0.25厘至1.25-1.5厘。

聯儲局公開市場委員會在會後的議息聲明中表示,美國勞動市場「將會維持強勁」,較對上一次會議話「將會比較強」,顯得更有信心,亦把美國明年GDP增長率由9月時預期的2.1%上調至2.5%

聯儲局會在今次會議決定加息,市場已預咗。經濟數據良好,早前公布的11月非農就業報告等經濟數據靚仔,昨日公佈的美國11月生產者物價(PPI)增長與前三個月一樣,維持按月升0.4%,高過市場預期的0.3%,按年計較去年急升3.1%,高過市場預期的2.9%10月時的2.8%增幅,更係20121月以來的最大增幅。數據良好聯儲局加息好正常,雖然聯儲局今次仍然傾向鴿派,但市場關注聯儲局主席鮑維爾明年初新官上任,聯儲局的態度會否由「鴿」轉「鷹」,會否加快加息步伐,此前已有分析說聯儲局明年可能加息四次,較此前預期的多了一次。

不過,聯儲局已經預告明年只會按計劃加息三次。事實上,睇聯儲局公佈對美國未來幾年的通脹及GDP增長速度,對美國經濟的底子似乎不是很樂觀,認為美國經濟好景不長,聯儲局預期2019年的GDP增長會回落至2.1%2019年再跌1個百份點至2%。至於通脹率,當局上調今年的通脹率0.1個百份點至1.7%,對明年以後的通脹預期則維持不變,2018年的通脹率為1.9%2019年及2020年為2%,打後都是2%。預期經濟唔係幾得,通脹亦唔會有明顯好轉啦。

至於明年經濟點解會好轉,其實聯儲局主席耶倫講過,在此前的幾次演說中,耶倫都對特朗普推出的積極財政政策,會對經濟有幫助方面,表示樂觀,只係程度未及特朗普等共和黨人而已,他們說減稅將推動美國GDP增長至3%以上。

此前有分析已經指出,深入研究美國的就業報告之後,覺得美國經濟數據,特別是非農就業報告,有點外強中乾。分析指出美國勞動市場正出現一個怪現象,失業率與資薪出現背馳,美國11月失業率為4.1%,係17年的新低,可以說已經到達全民就業的水平,而11月平均時薪年增長率雖然較前幾個月反彈,但也只有2.5%,低過市場預期的2.7%,即反彈幅度也不夠。至於非農職位增長22.8萬個,好過市場預期的20萬,但相對於10月的24.4萬,其實已見衰退。值得注意的是,睇美國薪資走勢,走勢都有一個頗長的波段,例如對上一個跌浪由2008年中的年增長3.5%,一直跌至2012年下半段的1.5%才反彈,之後緩慢上升至2017910月又開始回落,恐怕資薪增長將會出現一段長時間向下走。

另外,美國戰後嬰兒潮人口開始進入退休期,美國的勞動人口逐漸減少,現時的參與率已經跌至62.7%,創出新低。勞動參與率偏低,工資又無增長,扣除通脹,打工仔其實無人工加,整體的消費能力自然大受影響。美國GDP7成來自零售消費,GDP增長自然就不樂觀啦。在減稅和明年可能推出大量基建的推動下,聯儲局提高明年經濟預期,之後又顯得比較悲觀,就好易理解啦。

無論如何,聯儲局明年可能再加息3次,港美息差勢將進一步拉濶,香港明年加息,應無懸念了。

 

陸羽仁

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animal666 2019/01/21

CASH IS PAIN.... {#iconb_242}...

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kaka422617
kaka422617 2019/01/21

各位早

animal666
animal666 2019/01/21

內房股復甦之年
2019年01月21日

  港股上周五升335點,升幅1.3%,主要原因是上周人民銀行累計放水一萬億元人民幣,以補充春節來臨的資金短缺空檔,內地股市炒上,港股跟升。無獨有偶,美股杜指上周五亦升336點,上升點數與港股十分接近。

  美股上升,主要係炒中美貿易戰利好消息。美國上周四首先傳出財長努欽建議暫時全面撤銷對中國貨品新加徵的關稅,以推進中國貿易談判。及後雖然美國政府作出否認,但市場情緒樂觀。市場寄望特朗普會推動中美盡快達成貿易協議,以抵銷政府停擺對經濟造成的負面影響。

  特朗普又唱好有協議

  上周六特朗普見記者時話,和中國的貿易談判進展良好,正朝着達成貿易協議的方向。特朗普因美墨圍牆令政府停擺一個月,毫無寸進,提出的所謂讓步方案民主黨不接受,惟有靠唱好中美貿易協議去頂一頂。

  2019年股市整體概念係炒復甦,復甦能夠持續,主要睇中美能否達成貿易協議。市場由於現時普遍覺得達成協議機會較大,正在尋找能夠受惠行業。內地公司整體會因為經濟慢慢止跌回升受益,當中有兩個行業,市場比較看好。第一是基建投資相關行業,受惠中國正大力加大基建投資;第二則是內房。由於房地產是中國最大內需,中央要挺經濟,估計不會再大力度打壓房市,內地房市得以溫和復甦,因此看好去年表現比較差的內房股。

  據內地克而瑞研究中心數字顯示,2018年內地100大內房銷售規模增長35%。銷售規模達到千億元的房企達30間,佔內房半壁江山。首20位的內房,當中不少在香港上市。在中國,內房銷售榜有兩個,一個是流量榜,即公司的總體銷售數字;另一個是權益榜,房企有部份項目是與其他公司合作的,這個榜剔除其他公司所佔的權益部份,只計主體內房公司的淨銷售數字,故權益榜銷售金額會比流量榜細。

  三大房企 穩佔頭三

  以流量計,碧桂園(2007) 股價及相關新聞 去年排第一,銷售總金額7287億元人民幣,首次超越7000億元大關;排第二是萬科(2202) 股價及相關新聞 ,銷售金額6069億元;排第三是恒大(3333) 股價及相關新聞 ,銷售金額5511億元;融創(1918) 股價及相關新聞 由於併購,爬上第四位,銷售金額4600億元。若以權益金額計,恒大則排在第一位,銷售金額5241億元;碧桂園排第二,銷售金額5204億元;萬科排第三,有4248億元。中國的首20大房企,銷售金額(以流量計)去年最少的都超過1300億元。

  在首三大房企當中,恒大近年銷售策略由量轉質,不再只爭取賣樓數字增長,由以往經常排在流量榜第一位,現時排在第三。碧桂園去年升上銷售榜榜首後,就被人不斷狙擊。內地的「黑公關」很普遍,抓住碧桂園工地施工的小意外不斷做文章攻擊,但亦無損其銷售。

  2018年內地房市雖然風浪不少,總體銷情卻不俗。內房去年銷售增長有35%,預計今年將不可持續,只要看去年100大房企的銷售情況,也可知道。去年7月是轉捩點,100大內房當月按年增速還有60%,到12月,按年增長回落至只有21%,在去年7月升上高峰後,就開始快速滑落。究竟增速下滑勢頭是否已見底,仍有待觀察。市場估計100大房企今年增速,會由過去兩年按年增長接近40%,回落至20%左右。特別是龍頭房企,將會以平穩發展為主調,追求有質量增長,而不是單純擴大銷售額。

  我與內地大型房企老闆傾過,發覺中央在去年對樓市調控力度大幅加強,除了限購和嚴控借貸外,主要有兩招,第一招是限價,如果覺得售價貴,根本不發出銷售證,但其實「管理層」想樓價跌,要發展商賣得比二手還要便宜,例如二手樓市價是6萬人仔一平方米,管理部門可能只會讓房企以5.5萬人仔一平方米的價格銷售,咁就造成新樓價比二手樓平的倒掛現象。房企老闆如果頂得順的話,就會盡量放慢銷售,不想賤價賣樓。

  硬壓樓價 不可上升

  由於一手樓平過二手,二手市場都好差。我剛有朋友沽出在上海佘山附近小區的一間小別墅,他在2010年以400多萬元人民幣買入,經過八年多的樓市暴升,沽出價才700多萬元。據房產經紀表示,該小區去年只有三個單位成交,他的別墅是其中一個。買家是實際用家,也是高薪人士。在內地賣樓要繳付增值稅,按例由買方承擔,由於該別墅是毛坯房(甚麼裝修也沒有的房子),裝修可能再要花一百萬元,幾種費用加裝修費,買家實際要用過千萬元才可以入住,所以二手亦難成交。中央的限價措施,令一二手樓市都陷入冰封狀態。

  中央第二招是不讓較貴單位網簽,買家從發展商購入房子後,就要網簽,即簽訂合同後,到房地產相關部門進行備案,並公佈在網上。中央為了不讓樓價上升,就不讓高樓價單位進行網簽,等如未能完成交易的最後程序。這對發展商造成壓力,即使成功賣出樓盤,但因為未能進行網簽,那些單位交易仍未算完成,未能入帳,令發展商賣樓動力下降。

  預期下半年市道轉好

  內房大老闆話,今年賣樓目標唔敢定得太進取,基本是以增長10至20%作為起步,不能有太高預計。發展商賣樓不順,買地自然「窒手」,競拍的高地價不再,很多時都以底價成交,甚至成交唔到。由於賣地收入是地方政府的主要收入來源,賣唔到地,財政亦變得比較緊絀。這涉及另一問題,中央要谷基建,主要是批准唔同城市的地鐵等基建項目上馬。問題是,地方政府沒錢,如何搞基建呢?中央目前做法是要銀行貸款支援地鐵項目,或者批准地方政府發債。

  內地發展商的應變手法相當靈活,例如有大型房企把地區劃分,哪個地區賣樓賣得好,就容許他們去買地;賣樓賣得差的地區,就不能買地,形成一個自我調節機制,既獎勵賣樓積極的地區,還可以控制風險,不至於樓賣不出,地皮卻愈拿愈多,鎖死資金。

  內地內房大老闆估計,今年內地樓市上半年會比較疲弱,下半年復甦,他的公司都是按這預期部署,先守後攻。如果他的估計沒錯,由於股市跑前經濟和公司實際增長三個月至半年,可能進入第二季,內房股就會有較好表現。內房股選擇有很多,單是首20間內房股,已經是「蘿蔔白菜,各有所愛」。講增長型的,可選碧桂園和恒大等,股價上落較大,當然風險會較高;若論穩健型的,可以選已經變成國企的萬科,或者資產比較豐厚的世茂(813) 股價及相關新聞 ,特色是有官方背景支持,或借貸比例較低、資產豐厚,風險會比較低。因為市場覺得這些股份風險較低,在跌市時回落比例較細,它們的市盈率沒有風險股那麼低。整體而言,今年很大機會是內房復甦之年,大家可以趁股價回落時買一些,若怕大市變化,可以定好止蝕位才入市。

  陸羽仁