陸羽仁
陸羽仁
陸羽仁

外強中乾的經濟

2017/12/14 08:17:34 網誌分類: 經濟
14 Dec

美國一如所料又再加息,週三美股未受影響,不同指數個別發展,杜指升80點至點,再創歷史新高,標普微跌1點離場,聯儲局聲明內容傾向鴿派,令銀行股受壓。

聯儲局今年最後一次的貨幣政策會議昨日結束,一如所料,宣佈提高聯邦基準利率0.25厘至1.25-1.5厘。

聯儲局公開市場委員會在會後的議息聲明中表示,美國勞動市場「將會維持強勁」,較對上一次會議話「將會比較強」,顯得更有信心,亦把美國明年GDP增長率由9月時預期的2.1%上調至2.5%

聯儲局會在今次會議決定加息,市場已預咗。經濟數據良好,早前公布的11月非農就業報告等經濟數據靚仔,昨日公佈的美國11月生產者物價(PPI)增長與前三個月一樣,維持按月升0.4%,高過市場預期的0.3%,按年計較去年急升3.1%,高過市場預期的2.9%10月時的2.8%增幅,更係20121月以來的最大增幅。數據良好聯儲局加息好正常,雖然聯儲局今次仍然傾向鴿派,但市場關注聯儲局主席鮑維爾明年初新官上任,聯儲局的態度會否由「鴿」轉「鷹」,會否加快加息步伐,此前已有分析說聯儲局明年可能加息四次,較此前預期的多了一次。

不過,聯儲局已經預告明年只會按計劃加息三次。事實上,睇聯儲局公佈對美國未來幾年的通脹及GDP增長速度,對美國經濟的底子似乎不是很樂觀,認為美國經濟好景不長,聯儲局預期2019年的GDP增長會回落至2.1%2019年再跌1個百份點至2%。至於通脹率,當局上調今年的通脹率0.1個百份點至1.7%,對明年以後的通脹預期則維持不變,2018年的通脹率為1.9%2019年及2020年為2%,打後都是2%。預期經濟唔係幾得,通脹亦唔會有明顯好轉啦。

至於明年經濟點解會好轉,其實聯儲局主席耶倫講過,在此前的幾次演說中,耶倫都對特朗普推出的積極財政政策,會對經濟有幫助方面,表示樂觀,只係程度未及特朗普等共和黨人而已,他們說減稅將推動美國GDP增長至3%以上。

此前有分析已經指出,深入研究美國的就業報告之後,覺得美國經濟數據,特別是非農就業報告,有點外強中乾。分析指出美國勞動市場正出現一個怪現象,失業率與資薪出現背馳,美國11月失業率為4.1%,係17年的新低,可以說已經到達全民就業的水平,而11月平均時薪年增長率雖然較前幾個月反彈,但也只有2.5%,低過市場預期的2.7%,即反彈幅度也不夠。至於非農職位增長22.8萬個,好過市場預期的20萬,但相對於10月的24.4萬,其實已見衰退。值得注意的是,睇美國薪資走勢,走勢都有一個頗長的波段,例如對上一個跌浪由2008年中的年增長3.5%,一直跌至2012年下半段的1.5%才反彈,之後緩慢上升至2017910月又開始回落,恐怕資薪增長將會出現一段長時間向下走。

另外,美國戰後嬰兒潮人口開始進入退休期,美國的勞動人口逐漸減少,現時的參與率已經跌至62.7%,創出新低。勞動參與率偏低,工資又無增長,扣除通脹,打工仔其實無人工加,整體的消費能力自然大受影響。美國GDP7成來自零售消費,GDP增長自然就不樂觀啦。在減稅和明年可能推出大量基建的推動下,聯儲局提高明年經濟預期,之後又顯得比較悲觀,就好易理解啦。

無論如何,聯儲局明年可能再加息3次,港美息差勢將進一步拉濶,香港明年加息,應無懸念了。

 

陸羽仁

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2018/06/12 15:58:31 回覆
Both of them have the potential to be All-Stars, so all the teams that passed on them have to be kicking themselves at this point.
2018/06/12 15:58:30 回覆
7 though, which leads many to believe they are closer to a.
2018/06/12 07:53:06 回覆
It’s easy to forget that he’s only 31 (going on 32), which means he is still young enough to come back from so much time off.
2018/06/12 07:53:06 回覆
That’s exactly how you describe Buxton’s outfielding.
2018/06/11 23:57:20 回覆
over Blake Treinen, who has been lights out, and a mixture of potentially-elite prospects.
2018/06/11 23:57:20 回覆
That is exactly what this Yankee team needs, and Didi fills that role to perfection.
2018/06/11 06:39:59 回覆
Overnight the NBA Finals went from ‘wrap it up’ to ‘we’ve got a series on our hands.
2018/06/11 06:39:59 回覆
They will be attacked by pitches since they lack the presence the rest of the lineup has.
2018/06/10 19:44:54 回覆
Maybe the Celtics will be able to continue to grit out tough performances even in Gordon Hayward’s absence, but the Toronto Raptors will likely step in to fill that void.
2018/06/10 19:44:53 回覆
His 6-1 K/BB ratio was, again, impressive, with 66 strikeouts in 29 innings, and a WHIP of 1.
2018/06/10 09:48:53 回覆
Shooting 70 percent from the floor (3-5 from three), Dotson had what was by far his best offensive performance of the preseason.
2018/06/10 09:48:53 回覆
In addition to his great ERA, he has been racking up strikeouts in his limited innings.
2018/06/10 01:37:14 回覆
Golden State only has 5 losses on the season, and rarely ever loses a big lead.
2018/06/10 01:37:14 回覆
In between the at-bats of Lindor and Brantley, a squirrel made its way onto the field.
2018/06/09 14:19:19 回覆
Having hypnotized the Astros for over half the game, and then be suddenly pulled after yielding a lo.
2018/06/09 14:19:19 回覆
Parker’s representation would be foolish not to point out that Joel Embiid just landed a five-.
2018/06/09 05:34:32 回覆
319 with 15 homers between High-A Lancaster and AA Corpus, Laureano took a step back in 2017, slashing just.
2018/06/09 05:34:32 回覆
If the Yankees are serious about going after Cole, Fulmer, or Machado, Frazier would be a good starting point for the trade negotiations.
2018/06/08 19:09:21 回覆
On Thursday, following a brief independent investigation, the NBA announced that the Los Angeles Lak.
2018/06/08 19:09:21 回覆
Miguel Andujar’s Time Running OutWhile it will take more than a Spring Training to determine w.
2018/06/08 08:31:58 回覆
The Astros finished 2014 with a 70-92 record, after three consecutive 100-loss seasons from 2011 through 鈥?3, averaging 104 losses in the four years from ’11-’14.
2018/06/08 08:31:58 回覆
By comparison, Chris Archer gave up 7 hits in 7 聽innings in his first start, April 2, walking one and striking out 5.
2018/06/08 00:10:17 回覆
Their ejectionsThis altercation in the media led to some extra jawing on the court between them.
2018/06/08 00:10:17 回覆
Following the comment, the Bulls did go on a six-game win streak, but they began to change the way they played.
2018/06/07 11:28:12 回覆
I’d love to see Casey start where they finished in Game 5 with Norman Powell on Paul George getting under his skin and denying him the ball when possible.
2018/06/07 11:28:12 回覆
BIZARRO BACKGROUND:In the 1960s, the universe of DC Comics whelped a cube-shaped alternative planet, htraE (Earth spelled backwards), or Bizarro World.
2018/06/07 02:37:32 回覆
“For me there is nothing better than getting phone calls from the people in my hometown thanki.
2018/06/07 02:37:32 回覆
鈥滿atthews made the play of the game on the offensive end, with just under 30 seconds.
2018/06/06 11:34:50 回覆
With both hitters in the same lineup, it should be a feeding frenzy on opposing pitchers.
2018/06/06 11:34:50 回覆
Chad Green:With Luis Cessa being cut, and Bryan Mitchell seemingly pitching himself out of the compe.
2018/06/06 02:47:38 回覆
It was reported that Girardi would have been gone no matter the postseason success of the Yankees, s.
2018/06/06 02:47:38 回覆
He was featured in only 29 games due to injury, including just two starts.
2018/06/05 13:32:36 回覆
White is the New Back-UpAfter winning the starting 1B role out of spring camp last season, Tyler Whi.
2018/06/05 13:24:13 回覆
NR: I know you guys this year are going into a little bit more of a rebuilding process.
2018/06/02 02:12:58 回覆
The flamethrower, who averages 98-101 mph on his fastball, was very pleased with how he mixed in his changeup this afternoon too.
2018/06/01 14:02:49 回覆
322 batting average looks extra good when put up against his.
2018/06/01 05:06:29 回覆
The Astros spent the first half of ’16 managing to lose 9 out of the ten games played against the Rangers.
2018/05/31 18:17:15 回覆
prospects, it is that every veteran who struggles becomes replaceable by one of those prospects.
2018/05/31 07:43:37 回覆
ead that they had at one point, they often showed a particular type of pride or willpower as a team.
2018/05/30 22:17:15 回覆
In 2016, the Chicago Cubs broke the longest World Series drought in MLB history.
2018/05/30 11:27:40 回覆
Morton pitched in four games for the Phillies in 2016, but a torn hamstring forced him to miss the rest of the season.
2018/05/30 03:18:51 回覆
” 23-year-old Houston Astros farmhand, Dean Deetz spoke confidently about his 2017 season to W.
2018/05/29 15:55:58 回覆
Even Chase Headley earned enough votes to be placed fifth for third basemen.
2018/05/29 07:20:26 回覆
e ahead, times are still looking bleak as leading scorer Danilo Gallinari will be out indefinitely with two torn ligaments in his right ankle.
2018/05/28 22:55:24 回覆
There are a lot of good relievers available this winter, most in their early 30s, so the Twins bringing in a couple would not be surprising at all.
2018/05/28 11:07:26 回覆
se of head coach Luke Walton and his relationship with the Zenmaster, his former coach Phil Jackson.
2018/05/28 03:27:02 回覆
And suddenly it was time to pay up for Gasol’s dutiful decision to opt out of his contract and help the Spurs out.
2018/05/27 17:46:42 回覆
Roughly pro-rated over a full season of a conservative 408 ABs, that would give White 144 hits, 24 home runs, and 96 RBI.
2018/05/24 02:55:20 回覆
lion to spend before they are anywhere near the luxury tax in 2018, and $6 million of pure cap space.
2018/05/18 17:33:25 回覆
The biggest problem with hiring Maddux聽is that he is currently employed with the Washington Nationals.
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