陸羽仁
陸羽仁
陸羽仁

外強中乾的經濟

2017/12/14 08:17:34 網誌分類: 經濟
14 Dec

美國一如所料又再加息,週三美股未受影響,不同指數個別發展,杜指升80點至點,再創歷史新高,標普微跌1點離場,聯儲局聲明內容傾向鴿派,令銀行股受壓。

聯儲局今年最後一次的貨幣政策會議昨日結束,一如所料,宣佈提高聯邦基準利率0.25厘至1.25-1.5厘。

聯儲局公開市場委員會在會後的議息聲明中表示,美國勞動市場「將會維持強勁」,較對上一次會議話「將會比較強」,顯得更有信心,亦把美國明年GDP增長率由9月時預期的2.1%上調至2.5%

聯儲局會在今次會議決定加息,市場已預咗。經濟數據良好,早前公布的11月非農就業報告等經濟數據靚仔,昨日公佈的美國11月生產者物價(PPI)增長與前三個月一樣,維持按月升0.4%,高過市場預期的0.3%,按年計較去年急升3.1%,高過市場預期的2.9%10月時的2.8%增幅,更係20121月以來的最大增幅。數據良好聯儲局加息好正常,雖然聯儲局今次仍然傾向鴿派,但市場關注聯儲局主席鮑維爾明年初新官上任,聯儲局的態度會否由「鴿」轉「鷹」,會否加快加息步伐,此前已有分析說聯儲局明年可能加息四次,較此前預期的多了一次。

不過,聯儲局已經預告明年只會按計劃加息三次。事實上,睇聯儲局公佈對美國未來幾年的通脹及GDP增長速度,對美國經濟的底子似乎不是很樂觀,認為美國經濟好景不長,聯儲局預期2019年的GDP增長會回落至2.1%2019年再跌1個百份點至2%。至於通脹率,當局上調今年的通脹率0.1個百份點至1.7%,對明年以後的通脹預期則維持不變,2018年的通脹率為1.9%2019年及2020年為2%,打後都是2%。預期經濟唔係幾得,通脹亦唔會有明顯好轉啦。

至於明年經濟點解會好轉,其實聯儲局主席耶倫講過,在此前的幾次演說中,耶倫都對特朗普推出的積極財政政策,會對經濟有幫助方面,表示樂觀,只係程度未及特朗普等共和黨人而已,他們說減稅將推動美國GDP增長至3%以上。

此前有分析已經指出,深入研究美國的就業報告之後,覺得美國經濟數據,特別是非農就業報告,有點外強中乾。分析指出美國勞動市場正出現一個怪現象,失業率與資薪出現背馳,美國11月失業率為4.1%,係17年的新低,可以說已經到達全民就業的水平,而11月平均時薪年增長率雖然較前幾個月反彈,但也只有2.5%,低過市場預期的2.7%,即反彈幅度也不夠。至於非農職位增長22.8萬個,好過市場預期的20萬,但相對於10月的24.4萬,其實已見衰退。值得注意的是,睇美國薪資走勢,走勢都有一個頗長的波段,例如對上一個跌浪由2008年中的年增長3.5%,一直跌至2012年下半段的1.5%才反彈,之後緩慢上升至2017910月又開始回落,恐怕資薪增長將會出現一段長時間向下走。

另外,美國戰後嬰兒潮人口開始進入退休期,美國的勞動人口逐漸減少,現時的參與率已經跌至62.7%,創出新低。勞動參與率偏低,工資又無增長,扣除通脹,打工仔其實無人工加,整體的消費能力自然大受影響。美國GDP7成來自零售消費,GDP增長自然就不樂觀啦。在減稅和明年可能推出大量基建的推動下,聯儲局提高明年經濟預期,之後又顯得比較悲觀,就好易理解啦。

無論如何,聯儲局明年可能再加息3次,港美息差勢將進一步拉濶,香港明年加息,應無懸念了。

 

陸羽仁

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2018/08/20

人民幣和美貿赤成主角
2018年08月20日

  中美貿易戰開展兩個多月,美國突然要求中國重開貿易談判,結果中國只願意搞出一個副商務部長級別的低級談判。中港股市對此反應冷淡,特別是內地股市,上周五再跌1.3%,上證指數跌穿低位,收報2668點。

  港股表現就好一些,恒指反彈113點,暫時脫離低位,全賴騰訊(700) 股價及相關新聞 反彈3.4%帶動。相對而言,美股反應好得多,杜指繼上周四大升近400點,上周五再升110點,收報25669點,創五個月高位,直迫半年高位25709點。

  貿易戰開打,美股差不多毫髮無損,中港股市受到重創。問題就來了,美國總統特朗普打貿易戰,個人民望大升,六月他的支持度已經升穿50%,美股表現亦強勁,他有甚麼動機要與中國停戰,重啟貿易談判呢?

  股市冷淡 人仔大彈

  我覺得關鍵在於人民幣和美國貿赤。人民幣匯價持續下插,離岸人民幣上周四低見6.9491,離七算只是一步之遙。不過,中美貿易談判消息一傳出,中國股市呆滯,但人民幣卻大幅反彈,離岸人民幣上周四凌晨大升950點子至6.8541,升幅1.3%,創2017年1月以來最大單日升幅,之後略為回吐,但在上周五美國收市時報6.8775,仍遠離早前低位。這反映外國投資者對中美貿易談判看得樂觀少少,中國投資者經過「狼來了」教訓,看得比較悲觀。美國投資者特別看好的是人民幣匯價,所以離岸人民幣匯價,才會反彈得這樣厲害。

  美國《華爾街日報》傳出消息,話中美談判將於這個月22及23日在美國舉行,美國屆時將促使中國政府把人民幣匯價推高至貿易戰之前水平。報道指,美國一直指責中國推低人民幣匯價,削弱美國加徵關稅效果。在這個時候召開談判,美國主要關注的議題是人民幣匯價,透露一些重要訊息。

  消息傳出 針對匯價

  首先看看美國針對人民幣匯價理據。美國白宮首席經濟顧問庫德洛於上周四在內閣回答特朗普詢問中國前景時說,中國經濟看起來「很恐怖」,有數字顯示中國的零售銷售、商業投資和經濟正在「崩潰中」,投資者不喜歡中國經濟,所以把資金移走,又提到中國操控貨幣匯率。

  不過,即使是引述庫德洛的意見的媒體如CNBC,都說數據顯示中國經濟雖然略為放緩,但完全不是如庫德洛所形容的那樣。更大的問題是,如果中國經濟真的這樣差,人民幣匯價下跌是正常而合理情況,美國說中國操控人民幣,當然是指推低人民幣匯價,理應如此,又何來操控呢?美國政府理據混淆,關鍵源於他們純粹以美國利益出發,即特朗普經所講的「美國優先」。更加確切的說,特朗普是以他的選舉利益為優先。

  有了這條主線,他們對中國那些相當混亂的評價,就完全解釋得到。美國政府唱衰中國,以顯示在貿易戰中大獲全勝,但又指責中國推低操控人民幣匯價,這個正正是特朗普最大痛點。我見到《華爾街日報》的標題《美國要逼中國推高人民幣匯價》就捧腹不已。當美國要與中國全面開打貿易戰,它又憑甚麼可以要求中國推升人民幣匯價呢?美國向中國5000億美元進口貨品加徵關稅,美國大獲全勝,導致中國經濟嚴重受創,匯價狂跌是正常事情,加上美國已經「晒冷」開戰,中國為甚麼要聽美國人的說話,「人為操控」硬把人民幣匯價推高呢?

  從美國這些充滿邏輯矛盾的評論和要求,可以看到幾樣事情。第一是美國不關心內地股市下跌,但關心人民幣下跌,因為人民幣急跌,美元匯價上升,將會令輸往美國的中國貨品更有優勢。中美已經對340億美元進口貨互徵關稅,本月23日,美國如果對第二批的160億美元中國進口貨品加徵關稅,中國也會作出同額報復。中美雙方互徵同額關稅,基本上不能夠縮減美國對中國貿赤。然而,餘下未有徵稅的4500億美元中國進口貨品,會因人民幣下跌,變得更便宜和更有吸引力,匯價成為中國在貿戰中的重要武器。所以,特朗普要壓制人民幣下跌勢頭,阻止美國對華貿赤擴大,估計這是他急於與中國重開貿易談判主要原因。

  8‧23成關鍵日子

  第二是談判時間。美國要中國推高人民幣匯價,中國出於甚麼原因要聽美國枝笛呢?中美談判選擇在22及23日舉行,正好是美國對第二批的160億美元中國貨品加徵關稅前夕。美國能夠扔出來的蜜桃,就是中國如果應美方要求,推高人民幣匯價,美國會暫停第二批中國貨品徵稅。整體而言,在中美貿易戰上,美國佔盡主導,中國只是被動角色。中國此前已經把每年加大進口700億美元的美國貨品的讓步方案放在談判桌上,美國隨時都可以接受,問題是特朗普為了選舉,根本不想達成協議。中國容許人民幣急跌,打出一張會對美國中期選舉造成干擾的反制牌,中國挽回少許主動性。以特朗普不擇手段的性格,不排除雙方有機會達成一個小範圍協議。即中國推升人民幣匯價,美國暫緩對第二批160億美元中國貨品制裁。

  就當雙方有六成機率達成協議,短期內會造成市場夾高風險,主要體現在人民幣匯價上,若成事人仔會大彈。股市則估計在談判之前,仍會比較呆滯反覆,投資者等候談判會否有好消息出籠。不過,內地股市弱勢卻有點出人意表,顯示內地投資者信心相當脆弱。

  上周五晚傳出消息,由於內地股市跌跌不止,中國證監會一直開會至夜晚九點過後。隨後有官方權威消息指上述消息是假的,並無其事。先不理會中國證監會是否有開會,但我相信內地股市這樣持續下跌,已經惹起管理層關注。特別是在中美貿易談判前夕的關鍵時間,說不定是阿爺出招撐市,壯壯己方聲威。所以我對內地股市不是一面倒看淡,短期內或會止跌反彈。

  總統換人 加息或變

  由於現時全球經濟由民粹主義強人特朗普把持,像美國這樣一個民主政體,決策的波動性竟可媲美北韓這樣的極權專制政府。由於影響經濟及股市因素太個人化,可測性很低,隨時會出現180度轉變的買進或沽空風險。現時一個星期的變化,可能抵得上過去一年的變化。

  以美息為例,特朗普早前威逼聯儲局不能持續加息,令美元太強。市場預期,聯儲局今年將於9月及12月各加一次,但聯儲局在特朗普威嚇下,會否預期加息仍是問題。更大問題是,今年將有七名聯儲局理事任期完結,市場估計特朗普會重新委任其中六人。特朗普不想加息,其實可以透過新任的理事,左右聯儲局明年利息政策。現時有分析估計,特朗普可能會透過聯儲局新任理事,把明年原定加息次數,由四次減為兩次。

  科技受壓 基建吃香

  特朗普若成功令聯儲局減少加息,先享受股市上升的利好成果。到某一日,經濟及股市樓市開始反映通脹來臨的恐慌,他又可以在Twitter上建議聯儲局加息啦。這種「特朗普波動」,未來還會持續。

  現時相距美國中期選舉還有三個月,理論上在此之前,特朗普不會放棄以反華爭取選票的基調。因此在這段時間內,中港股市仍有壓力。短期反彈或許會有,但很難全面上升。買股比較難賺錢,因為買了股,即使反彈,可能沒趕得及走人,股市已經再回跌。

  不過,如果中美貿易戰繼續惡化,內地一定會大力放水,例如谷基建去刺激經濟。因此,基建股可以看成是貿易戰對沖股份。例如中交建(1800) 股價及相關新聞 跌到7.8元附近,很快又反彈上8元水平,走勢相對較強。目前科技股慘被屠殺,如果大家要從科技股斬倉出逃的話,基建股是換馬可取選擇。

  陸羽仁