陸羽仁
陸羽仁
陸羽仁

追落後股市

2017/12/28 08:56:13 網誌分類: 經濟
28 Dec

週三美股繼續平穩渡過,杜指全日波幅唔夠60點,收市微升0.1%;標普500指數及納指接近平手離場。無他,大部份美國交易員仍在休假,一般要放完新年假至返工。

年近歲晚,當然又係玩猜猜明年股市會點的遊戲,今年美股以至全球股市都有不錯表現,明年仲有無咁好景?

睇淡美股明年表現的主要認為美股今年的大升,升勢主要由科技股,特別係FANG加埋蘋果同微軟幾隻科技相關巨股帶動,截至昨日科技股今年累升了38%,而能源股仍跌4%,電訊股跌6%

睇淡派認為狹窄的市場參與率所帶動的升市,不是健康的升市,不能持續。另外,就係美股今年的波動太低,標普500指數全年只有8日升跌高過1%,而自1945年以來的年平均係50日,這樣低的波幅不可能持續;更重要的是美股今年已經升得好高,至今,杜指累升25.36%,而標普500指數也累升了19.8%,杜指年中更有69次創出歷史新高,係美股有史以來最多。另外,標普500指數的市盈率已去到25.8倍,相對於歷史平均的15.7倍,已經高出很多。所以睇唔好美股2018年走勢。

有人睇淡,就自然有人睇好。有紐約著名分析家就係睇好派,佢覺得美股今年已經升得好高,明年無理由會繼續衝上的講法,跟去年底的時候的看法好相似,2016年美股表現也是異常強勁,標普500指數全年升了18.5%,當年就有很多分析員認為美股已經升得好貴,2017年點可能再升呢?唔跌已經偷笑,結果係眼鏡跌到一地都係,標普500指數升幅仲大過2016年!

佢認為,到目前為止,仍未見到阻礙美股續升的因素,事實上,繼續向上的可能性還要大些。美企目前的盈利的確不低,但是否可以再升,既要睇美國經濟,也要看全球經濟得唔得,事實上,睇今年大宗商品市場的反應已經見到全球經濟狀況的端倪,今年,鋁價累升了鋁 29%;銅升了31%;錫升了27%,而布蘭特原油也升了17%;集中在歐洲股市的大宗商品股亦明顯造好,例如Antofogasta全年升了58%Glencore升了 50%Rio Tinto升了 31%BHP Billiton亦大漲了24%

商品上升在在反映了全球經濟,特別是當中的最大買家中國的經濟正在擴張之中。另外,美國剛通過了龐大的減稅計劃,對美企盈利前景,明顯有幫助。還未計入特朗普明年會力推基建的刺激經濟計劃的推力。

至於美股波動率非常低,這要看是屬於循環性質的還是長期性的。他估計低波動率還會持續一段時間,因為突然大的波動率基本上不會忽然間跳出來。

BTIG的首席技術策略師Katie Stockton昨日在CNBC用了幾張圖表來分析,預測明年股市仍是看漲居多。睇杜指及標普500指數圖,走勢一路向上的勢態仍然好靚仔,還未見到出現調整的跡象。她指出,美股進入今年最後的兩個月,正在進行輪動板塊的炒上,科技股以外的板塊,正在發力追趕,例如金融股及能源股,可見美股的參與性正在擴大。

美股繼續向上,除了美股會受到美國經濟及政策的推動之外,也受惠於全球經濟及股市的走強,主要基於兩點,第一是日股,日股今年走勢強勁,特別係12月,日經225指數昨日輕微回軟0.5%,不過,此前已經連升16日,升幅係21年以來最長的升勢,最重要係成功突破2000年的阻力。日經225指數由2000年高位回落,之後反彈又回落再反彈,造成一個W型,現時剛好突破了最左面的高位。Stockton比較標普500指數的走勢圖,與2013年情況差不多,之後美股一日千里,升到現在,所以估計日股也會差不多,此前表現最差勁的日股有好表現,對全球股市亦會造成好大助力。

Stockton表示,再睇埋追蹤美股及加拿大股以外的中小型已發展國家的股票基金的走勢,會發現經過長期的下降,已經見到下跌勢頭減緩,出現見底跡象,反映北美以外的股票正在回升。Stockton總結,隨著日股扭轉長期以來的跌勢,國際的股市動力正在加強,預視包括美股的全球股市明年都會繼續造好,

不過,她認為相比起環球股市,在強勁反彈及資金追落後的情況下,美股明年的表現將不會像以往幾年一枝獨秀,升幅將會跑輸其他國家,特別是新興國家的股市。

總結一句,明年還可能是追落後的股市佔優,中國就是這類股市。

 

陸羽仁

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animal666 2019/01/21

CASH IS PAIN.... {#iconb_242}...

SIGH...

kaka422617
kaka422617 2019/01/21

各位早

animal666
animal666 2019/01/21

內房股復甦之年
2019年01月21日

  港股上周五升335點,升幅1.3%,主要原因是上周人民銀行累計放水一萬億元人民幣,以補充春節來臨的資金短缺空檔,內地股市炒上,港股跟升。無獨有偶,美股杜指上周五亦升336點,上升點數與港股十分接近。

  美股上升,主要係炒中美貿易戰利好消息。美國上周四首先傳出財長努欽建議暫時全面撤銷對中國貨品新加徵的關稅,以推進中國貿易談判。及後雖然美國政府作出否認,但市場情緒樂觀。市場寄望特朗普會推動中美盡快達成貿易協議,以抵銷政府停擺對經濟造成的負面影響。

  特朗普又唱好有協議

  上周六特朗普見記者時話,和中國的貿易談判進展良好,正朝着達成貿易協議的方向。特朗普因美墨圍牆令政府停擺一個月,毫無寸進,提出的所謂讓步方案民主黨不接受,惟有靠唱好中美貿易協議去頂一頂。

  2019年股市整體概念係炒復甦,復甦能夠持續,主要睇中美能否達成貿易協議。市場由於現時普遍覺得達成協議機會較大,正在尋找能夠受惠行業。內地公司整體會因為經濟慢慢止跌回升受益,當中有兩個行業,市場比較看好。第一是基建投資相關行業,受惠中國正大力加大基建投資;第二則是內房。由於房地產是中國最大內需,中央要挺經濟,估計不會再大力度打壓房市,內地房市得以溫和復甦,因此看好去年表現比較差的內房股。

  據內地克而瑞研究中心數字顯示,2018年內地100大內房銷售規模增長35%。銷售規模達到千億元的房企達30間,佔內房半壁江山。首20位的內房,當中不少在香港上市。在中國,內房銷售榜有兩個,一個是流量榜,即公司的總體銷售數字;另一個是權益榜,房企有部份項目是與其他公司合作的,這個榜剔除其他公司所佔的權益部份,只計主體內房公司的淨銷售數字,故權益榜銷售金額會比流量榜細。

  三大房企 穩佔頭三

  以流量計,碧桂園(2007) 股價及相關新聞 去年排第一,銷售總金額7287億元人民幣,首次超越7000億元大關;排第二是萬科(2202) 股價及相關新聞 ,銷售金額6069億元;排第三是恒大(3333) 股價及相關新聞 ,銷售金額5511億元;融創(1918) 股價及相關新聞 由於併購,爬上第四位,銷售金額4600億元。若以權益金額計,恒大則排在第一位,銷售金額5241億元;碧桂園排第二,銷售金額5204億元;萬科排第三,有4248億元。中國的首20大房企,銷售金額(以流量計)去年最少的都超過1300億元。

  在首三大房企當中,恒大近年銷售策略由量轉質,不再只爭取賣樓數字增長,由以往經常排在流量榜第一位,現時排在第三。碧桂園去年升上銷售榜榜首後,就被人不斷狙擊。內地的「黑公關」很普遍,抓住碧桂園工地施工的小意外不斷做文章攻擊,但亦無損其銷售。

  2018年內地房市雖然風浪不少,總體銷情卻不俗。內房去年銷售增長有35%,預計今年將不可持續,只要看去年100大房企的銷售情況,也可知道。去年7月是轉捩點,100大內房當月按年增速還有60%,到12月,按年增長回落至只有21%,在去年7月升上高峰後,就開始快速滑落。究竟增速下滑勢頭是否已見底,仍有待觀察。市場估計100大房企今年增速,會由過去兩年按年增長接近40%,回落至20%左右。特別是龍頭房企,將會以平穩發展為主調,追求有質量增長,而不是單純擴大銷售額。

  我與內地大型房企老闆傾過,發覺中央在去年對樓市調控力度大幅加強,除了限購和嚴控借貸外,主要有兩招,第一招是限價,如果覺得售價貴,根本不發出銷售證,但其實「管理層」想樓價跌,要發展商賣得比二手還要便宜,例如二手樓市價是6萬人仔一平方米,管理部門可能只會讓房企以5.5萬人仔一平方米的價格銷售,咁就造成新樓價比二手樓平的倒掛現象。房企老闆如果頂得順的話,就會盡量放慢銷售,不想賤價賣樓。

  硬壓樓價 不可上升

  由於一手樓平過二手,二手市場都好差。我剛有朋友沽出在上海佘山附近小區的一間小別墅,他在2010年以400多萬元人民幣買入,經過八年多的樓市暴升,沽出價才700多萬元。據房產經紀表示,該小區去年只有三個單位成交,他的別墅是其中一個。買家是實際用家,也是高薪人士。在內地賣樓要繳付增值稅,按例由買方承擔,由於該別墅是毛坯房(甚麼裝修也沒有的房子),裝修可能再要花一百萬元,幾種費用加裝修費,買家實際要用過千萬元才可以入住,所以二手亦難成交。中央的限價措施,令一二手樓市都陷入冰封狀態。

  中央第二招是不讓較貴單位網簽,買家從發展商購入房子後,就要網簽,即簽訂合同後,到房地產相關部門進行備案,並公佈在網上。中央為了不讓樓價上升,就不讓高樓價單位進行網簽,等如未能完成交易的最後程序。這對發展商造成壓力,即使成功賣出樓盤,但因為未能進行網簽,那些單位交易仍未算完成,未能入帳,令發展商賣樓動力下降。

  預期下半年市道轉好

  內房大老闆話,今年賣樓目標唔敢定得太進取,基本是以增長10至20%作為起步,不能有太高預計。發展商賣樓不順,買地自然「窒手」,競拍的高地價不再,很多時都以底價成交,甚至成交唔到。由於賣地收入是地方政府的主要收入來源,賣唔到地,財政亦變得比較緊絀。這涉及另一問題,中央要谷基建,主要是批准唔同城市的地鐵等基建項目上馬。問題是,地方政府沒錢,如何搞基建呢?中央目前做法是要銀行貸款支援地鐵項目,或者批准地方政府發債。

  內地發展商的應變手法相當靈活,例如有大型房企把地區劃分,哪個地區賣樓賣得好,就容許他們去買地;賣樓賣得差的地區,就不能買地,形成一個自我調節機制,既獎勵賣樓積極的地區,還可以控制風險,不至於樓賣不出,地皮卻愈拿愈多,鎖死資金。

  內地內房大老闆估計,今年內地樓市上半年會比較疲弱,下半年復甦,他的公司都是按這預期部署,先守後攻。如果他的估計沒錯,由於股市跑前經濟和公司實際增長三個月至半年,可能進入第二季,內房股就會有較好表現。內房股選擇有很多,單是首20間內房股,已經是「蘿蔔白菜,各有所愛」。講增長型的,可選碧桂園和恒大等,股價上落較大,當然風險會較高;若論穩健型的,可以選已經變成國企的萬科,或者資產比較豐厚的世茂(813) 股價及相關新聞 ,特色是有官方背景支持,或借貸比例較低、資產豐厚,風險會比較低。因為市場覺得這些股份風險較低,在跌市時回落比例較細,它們的市盈率沒有風險股那麼低。整體而言,今年很大機會是內房復甦之年,大家可以趁股價回落時買一些,若怕大市變化,可以定好止蝕位才入市。

  陸羽仁