陸羽仁
陸羽仁
陸羽仁

追落後股市

2017/12/28 08:56:13 網誌分類: 經濟
28 Dec

週三美股繼續平穩渡過,杜指全日波幅唔夠60點,收市微升0.1%;標普500指數及納指接近平手離場。無他,大部份美國交易員仍在休假,一般要放完新年假至返工。

年近歲晚,當然又係玩猜猜明年股市會點的遊戲,今年美股以至全球股市都有不錯表現,明年仲有無咁好景?

睇淡美股明年表現的主要認為美股今年的大升,升勢主要由科技股,特別係FANG加埋蘋果同微軟幾隻科技相關巨股帶動,截至昨日科技股今年累升了38%,而能源股仍跌4%,電訊股跌6%

睇淡派認為狹窄的市場參與率所帶動的升市,不是健康的升市,不能持續。另外,就係美股今年的波動太低,標普500指數全年只有8日升跌高過1%,而自1945年以來的年平均係50日,這樣低的波幅不可能持續;更重要的是美股今年已經升得好高,至今,杜指累升25.36%,而標普500指數也累升了19.8%,杜指年中更有69次創出歷史新高,係美股有史以來最多。另外,標普500指數的市盈率已去到25.8倍,相對於歷史平均的15.7倍,已經高出很多。所以睇唔好美股2018年走勢。

有人睇淡,就自然有人睇好。有紐約著名分析家就係睇好派,佢覺得美股今年已經升得好高,明年無理由會繼續衝上的講法,跟去年底的時候的看法好相似,2016年美股表現也是異常強勁,標普500指數全年升了18.5%,當年就有很多分析員認為美股已經升得好貴,2017年點可能再升呢?唔跌已經偷笑,結果係眼鏡跌到一地都係,標普500指數升幅仲大過2016年!

佢認為,到目前為止,仍未見到阻礙美股續升的因素,事實上,繼續向上的可能性還要大些。美企目前的盈利的確不低,但是否可以再升,既要睇美國經濟,也要看全球經濟得唔得,事實上,睇今年大宗商品市場的反應已經見到全球經濟狀況的端倪,今年,鋁價累升了鋁 29%;銅升了31%;錫升了27%,而布蘭特原油也升了17%;集中在歐洲股市的大宗商品股亦明顯造好,例如Antofogasta全年升了58%Glencore升了 50%Rio Tinto升了 31%BHP Billiton亦大漲了24%

商品上升在在反映了全球經濟,特別是當中的最大買家中國的經濟正在擴張之中。另外,美國剛通過了龐大的減稅計劃,對美企盈利前景,明顯有幫助。還未計入特朗普明年會力推基建的刺激經濟計劃的推力。

至於美股波動率非常低,這要看是屬於循環性質的還是長期性的。他估計低波動率還會持續一段時間,因為突然大的波動率基本上不會忽然間跳出來。

BTIG的首席技術策略師Katie Stockton昨日在CNBC用了幾張圖表來分析,預測明年股市仍是看漲居多。睇杜指及標普500指數圖,走勢一路向上的勢態仍然好靚仔,還未見到出現調整的跡象。她指出,美股進入今年最後的兩個月,正在進行輪動板塊的炒上,科技股以外的板塊,正在發力追趕,例如金融股及能源股,可見美股的參與性正在擴大。

美股繼續向上,除了美股會受到美國經濟及政策的推動之外,也受惠於全球經濟及股市的走強,主要基於兩點,第一是日股,日股今年走勢強勁,特別係12月,日經225指數昨日輕微回軟0.5%,不過,此前已經連升16日,升幅係21年以來最長的升勢,最重要係成功突破2000年的阻力。日經225指數由2000年高位回落,之後反彈又回落再反彈,造成一個W型,現時剛好突破了最左面的高位。Stockton比較標普500指數的走勢圖,與2013年情況差不多,之後美股一日千里,升到現在,所以估計日股也會差不多,此前表現最差勁的日股有好表現,對全球股市亦會造成好大助力。

Stockton表示,再睇埋追蹤美股及加拿大股以外的中小型已發展國家的股票基金的走勢,會發現經過長期的下降,已經見到下跌勢頭減緩,出現見底跡象,反映北美以外的股票正在回升。Stockton總結,隨著日股扭轉長期以來的跌勢,國際的股市動力正在加強,預視包括美股的全球股市明年都會繼續造好,

不過,她認為相比起環球股市,在強勁反彈及資金追落後的情況下,美股明年的表現將不會像以往幾年一枝獨秀,升幅將會跑輸其他國家,特別是新興國家的股市。

總結一句,明年還可能是追落後的股市佔優,中國就是這類股市。

 

陸羽仁

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