Only winner in football counted.. Also-Ran? no way

By Myles Palmer

What will happen at Arsenal this summer?

The club has an old board, an old manager and a young squad.
But Arsenal need a younger board, a younger manager, and an older team

While building a big new stadium, the club gave the manager far too much power.

Historically, Arsenal have craved stability as a club. They have never been relegated. And their main aim since 2005 has been to finish in the top four, rake in big money from the Champions League money, and pay off the debt.

In January 2009 they hired Ivan Gazidis, a young CEO, to work under Wenger, since it had become Wenger's club.

Gazidis, 45, is a corporate lawyer who has never worked in a pressurised situation.

He helped to set up the MLS which has a salary cap of $2m per club and no promotion of relegation. The MLS had start from scratch, almost. They had to build stadiums, set up a refereeing network, work very hard for every ticket sold, and keep working hard to compete with NFL, the NBA, the NHL and baseball.

Then Gazidis came to Arsenal and found it was a one-man club. Wenger was a dictator surrounded by yes-men. He trained in Austria, would not tour, signed French and African players, as he did at Monaco, would not allow much access to his pampered babies, saw himself as the only manager who could develop young players, and could not imagine retiring until he had won the Champions League.

For a CEO, this situation is horrible. A CEO should be able to replace the coach.

I laughed when I read that Wenger and his advisors would sit down with Gazidis in the summer and talk about a new contract. He won’t sign a new contract this summer. I’ll bet my entire record collection, and including my Little Feat, Hendrix and Stones bootlegs, that he won't sign a new contract this summer.

Wenger isn't sure he’s up to it any more. His behaviour on the touchline has been worse than ever this season. There’s a bigger element of masochism now. He was furious at the players for throwing away a 2-0 lead at Wigan but he should be angry with himself because he knows all teams get injuries and every player on the pitch was his player. If pros are 2-0 up in 80 minutes they should win, not lose 3-2.

But I wasn't shocked, as some people were. Rob Hughes told me he was really shocked by Arsenal’s collapse. I  wasn’t shocked or angry. I saw it and wrote it and forgot about it.

That is Wenger’s Arsenal : a brittle French team.

I was at the Emirates when the crowd were flying at 4-2 up against Spurs but Arsenal drew 4-4 and I wrote that season off right there. In the heat of the moment. Then I went home and calmed down and thought about it and wrote a piece saying : this season is over. This team cannot win anything this season. That was on October 30th, 2008. I wrote the season off on October 30. And I was proved right.

With Vermaelen out, I wasn't surprised they lost 3-2 at Wigan, a team in the relegation zone.

Clearly, Wenger makes a profit every year. The board value his ability to make a profit.

Will they offer him a new contract till 2014 because he makes a profit?

If they do, and he won’t commit, should they let him spend £30 million this summer?

Will he sign it before he goes to South Africa to cover the World Cup for French TV? If he did it would be the first time he has ever signed a contract in the summer.

I can't see him signing in the summer. He's 50-50, he doesn't know what he will do. He is very unlikely to own up, to admit his kids strategy is wrong. His seven Arsenal trophies were won by experienced players.

Deep down, Wenger wants to stay and pursue his ideas and prove us all wrong.

And I reckon the board will give him another year to fail. But they are very concerned that corporate boxes, Club Level and season ticket renewals might be sluggish. The 4,000-5,000 ticket-holders who don't turn up might just say : I don't need this any more, it’s too expensive, I don't rate this team, why should I bother if Wenger refuses to buy a class goalkeeper and three 25-year old players?

Ivan Gazidis won’t sit down with Wenger and insist : Buy a great goalkeeper. He won’t insist : Buy a star ! He won’t say : You needed Jack Wilshere at Wigan, Arsene. Why is he on loan at Bolton? Why was Merida on the pitch?

The meeting won’t be like that. We all know it won’t he like that. What will probably happen is this : Wenger won’t sign a new contract. He will see how next season is going in terms of results, crowds and corporate sales, see how he feels, and then, during the season, decide to stay or go.

In the longer term, Arsenal need to become a big club, rather than a club with a big turnover.

There is no mystery about how you become a big club. You don’t need the Boston Consulting Group to do a Strategic Review to tell you how to become a big club. You win trophies. Success makes you a big club. Finishing third and fourth does not make you a big club. Silverware and glory make you a big club. You need a team of winners, not a team of whingers. Achieve success with a team that knows how to win, the rest follows. Everything else follows from that : boxes, Club Level, big sponsorship deals, merchandise, shirt sales, DVDs, everything.

Obviously, a new star would generate massive shirt sales.

Only Fabregas and Van Persie sell shirts.

Arsenal need a player big enough to sell replica shirts outside the UK.
Messi and Rooney do that. Torres and Cristiano do that.

When you come third, it's not exciting.

When you win, the world comes to you.

Apr 23, 2010